A incredibly bullish sign for the market in a macro sense is about to print. However the actual cross itself is almost always bearish in the near term.
Note: A life cross is a when the 50-day SMA (blue) crosses up the 200-day SMA AND price action is above the 200-day SMA.
Looking left at past life crosses as shown below.
What kind of move are we likely to see? Which year is most similar to the past crosses. Honestly? Not one. Have studied each in turn, there’s no idea fractal.
However there are some clues, will share them elsewhere..
Ww
September 2021
2020
2019
2015
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Forgot to say... and this is sort of important. In October 2015 no correction was seen, the market actually moved up 50%. Is there way we can tell such an option is possible this time round? Yes.
Look left. WHEN 5 to 10 days pass after the cross without correction, then an October 2015 event is probable. It is a fact to say that with every life cross correction (following a strong buy signal - and there is hint hint nudge nudge), the near term correction was over inside 10 days.
What does this mean? It simply means sellers are exhausted, spent, kaput, dejected. It's all psychology.
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The life cross has printed and a lot sooner than expected. The cross is most similar to April 2019 in that it was not a ‘slow’ cross as expected but rather with momentum, in fact, I would say more so than in April 2019, wouldn’t you?
What does all this mean? Looking left.. a significant correction cannot be expected anymore.
For the bulls => Do nothing. Look what happens, price action goes sideways at best drops no more than 10% at worst, rips afterwards.
For the bears => Got to see that 21.5k level broken. If not, change your bias.
Ww
Today
April 2019
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Like clockwork..
What's really cool right now is if you hope over to Binance or Coinbase you can see the 90% versus the 10% divided perfectly in the order books. Large orders just wait to be filled the more emotional market participants. I wonder if this occurred in the last life crosses? Probably.. but I don't know.
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Price action has almost fully corrected by the same as was in April 2019 following the life cross, almost over. Notice how the 2019 event (look above) price action never touched the 50-day SMA before recovering, don't assume this time is different.
1-day
Trade closed: target reached
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Do you see what I do?
On the 2-day chart below a number of facts are printing:
1) Price action is currently printing a bullish engulfing candle on past resistance. (Orange circles).
2) The Bollinger Band is indicating a massive move is about to occur.
On #1, this is not just any resistance. This is 200+ days of resistance. Look left.
On #2, notice the bands coming together as indicated by the arrows? This is informing you the current move down in price action from £23.5k is weak. I repeat, this sell off is weak. If it were strong the Bollinger band would be growing in size not shrinking, it is that simple. Sellers are not dominant.
For the bulls: Price action need only hold above 22k until February 16th. A hold of 22k confirms support on past resistance.
For the bears: Price action must correct below 21.5k. Once confirmed a correction to 17.8k should be expected.
What will happen? Some of you know some of you don’t!
Ww
2-day chart
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Had a few messages asking if price action will drop under 20k again. Apparently more than a few folks sold under this area expecting lower lows because someone on Youtube said so.
I answer this question with this closed idea, which I think was not read in the first place despite sharing so many examples! When those life crosses print price action tests the 200-day or 50-day and to confirm the cross after a 10-15% correction. How did I know? Because we look left. When support was confirmed we then know price action is in a bull market.
Lessons learned? Stop listening to crypto Bros on Youtube!
This cross and the correction as has happened many times in the past.
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Buy back in at 23.5k
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Still bearish? If so, the worst signal for bears has just printed. What is it?
Following a life cross price action will print on the 50-day SMA to confirm the new bull market. It has done in every bull market before it.
Guess what just happened?
1-day chart
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Do you remember this idea?
Read from the beginning expect use on your alt-token position. You might be surprised what you see.
Furthermore.. what happened to Bitcoin after it hit 20k? Did it collapse to 10k like all were shouting for? Or did it almost double in price afterwards?
Compare with you alt position and realise... when there's blood on the streets.
@TradingShot, On the weekly death cross... 'It has never happened before!' they say.. well it seems to me folks are very keen on comparing price action with the stock market (although I don’t recall reading in the Satoshi white paper that Bitcoin was an S&P 500 ETF), therefore we can look at past death crosses on the index for reference.
In that circumstance we saw 20% rallies at the time of the weekly death cross followed by a 30% correction.
Weekly S&P 500
Take a moment to look at the knife like dive of 50-week (blue line) crossing the 200-week, this informed you of a significant move down was about to occur, a crash if you will. Now compare that with the weekly BTC chart. It is not the same. In fact, this behaviour is well understood by those who use moving averages for decision making (not myself, I don’t use them for forecasting future price action). However the gentle approach of the 50-week SMA tells you this is not going to result in a crash as has occurred in the index before it.
Weekly BTC
louistran_016
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@without_worries, I think the reason why BTC didn't dump following a death cross pattern (lower timeframe) back in 2010 - 2015 is it was not an institutionalized asset (majority held by retail money). Now it is much more institutionalized, therefore has a higher correlation with the indexes. You already saw how institution managed allocations in 2022, when the Nasdaq crashed everything tech dumped, no one care if Facebook is better positioned than Snapchat Not saying your call for the bottom is incorrect or we must crash much lower, but based on the current structure i think we might be in a long accumulation range throughout 2023
without_worries
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@louistran_016, If June lows of 2022 to present day were not an accumulation period I don't know what was. The boat has left the harbour.
louistran_016
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@without_worries, it absolutely is, in the stock market a rule of thumb is if the previous bottom is not broken a year later, it is the bottom, i guess we can confirm this June
InvestingScope
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