LupaCapital

BTC vs Bitcoin Dominance

Long
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello Traders and Analysts,

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish , due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities.

Note:
I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance.
With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone.

Master Key for zones
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Red = 4 Days
Yellow = 16 Hours
Orange = Daily
Dark Green = 8 Hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour


Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading

An interesting note:
Based on a modelling concept using a base case where the Cryptocurrency market reaches the size of the gold market and Bitcoin remains at around 50% Market dominance and or reaches 60%+ as the market has previous held % dominance of. The price of BTC can reach heights of according to the multiplication factor of the model. Note: Using at the time of model the gold market is 11.03Trillion. The Implied market cap of 6,781.80T at 60% gives an implied price per BTC at $360,734.04 per BTC . 50% Market dominance will provide an implied price per BTC at $300,611.70 per BTC .

To know further about the model please message me in the comments or privately for further information.

Monthly Imbalances
Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin , where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823. XX to $51,997. XX . This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point .

Bi-monthly Chart
The weekly sell zone from $64K All time high (at current).
The Fibonacci took us back to the weekly zone - refer to Weekly chart

- Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci successfully closes out with the -0.618%.

Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history.
The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link.

Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart

Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap
Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation.
The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin.

Daily Market Cap with BTC price
Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity.

BTC - candle sticks
ETH - purple
BNB - Rose pink
XRP - Orange
ADA - Green

Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021
BTC - 44.69%
ETH - 18.51%
BNB - 3.19%
ADA - 3.11%
USDT - 2.95*
XRP - 2.22%

* based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat.
Source:
https://coinmarketcap.com/

Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken.

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