4xForecaster
Short

Target Hit \ High Probability Reversal | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1349 25 12
Traders,

So, there it is. Target got hit on both counts per forecast, at:

1 - TG-1 = 490.03 - 01 SEP 2014

and

2 - TG-Hi = 495.17 - 01 SEP 2014.
(See prior analysis and forecast here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/chaqqrrF/)

As per definition, the qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Lo) defines an area of low-probability of getting hit due to the strain necessary to hiss price to those extremes. However, if and once price ever get there, it will act as a reversal level with high probability.

Such target is represented by TG-Hi = 495.17 - 01 SEP 2014, hence expect a significant reversal at that level. First floor will provide soft support at at 483.00. If floor holds, then the reversal scenario would have to be questioned. For now, it's reversal to lower lows as per quantitative target definition.

Once this consolidation settles, tune in for new predictive analyses/forecasts.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
noto1235
2 years ago
so say if it goes to TG hi 495 and breaks it we might see 530 or am i being too optimistic ...thanks
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO noto1235
2 years ago
@noto1235 - Indeed, a break above recent TG-Hi would mean two things:

1 - The model has been superseded by a timeframe controlled at a higher degree (typically, a H4 failure is directly related to larger player interference in HIGHER timeframe, typically DAILY - This is a phenomenon I have demonstrated with $BTCUSD before. Once the DAILY players (typically large institutions) relinquish price control, it falls back to H4 level of control, which is where my predictive/forecasting model is calibrated to provide its targets.

2 - A target would exists at a loftier price level, requiring a re-evaluation at a higher timeframe, as explained above.

Is this answering your question?

David
+1 Reply
noto1235
2 years ago
thanks man keep up the awesome work .... very helpful indeed
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO noto1235
2 years ago
Thank you @noto1235, very much appreciate the feedback - David
Reply
MoonTrader
2 years ago
Can you explain what you mean when you say "reversal"?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MoonTrader
2 years ago
Hello @MoonTrader - If you do not mind, I will cut/paste an explanation I gave earlier today about reversal vs. retracement relative to the targets - Here it is:


QUANT. vs. QUAL. TARGETS: What It Means In Terms Of Reversal vs. Retracement:
===========================================
TG-Hi and TG-Lo are different from TG-1, TG-2, ... in that they refer to probable reversal levels, as opposed to future R/S levels.

As indicated in their name, both TG-Hi and TG-Lo are qualitative (i.e.: "high" or "low" targets. In contrast, TG-1, TG-2, ... are quantitative targets (i.e.: 1, 2, 3, ...).

Whenever I write these targets, I use a proprietary predictive/forecasting model that provides both direction, strength, as well as foresees future resistance & support ("R/S") and reversal levels - Unfortunately, this being a proprietary model, it contains an algorithm which I cannot share with you or anyone else.

Recently, a trader recommended me to use pivot levels. I do not use pivots, simply because I do not use the chart as my first reference to define these targets. The model gives me a direction, strength and probability levels, and only then, once I have these do I turn to the chart were I write them in. The final value is only revealed once laid in the chart.

Each target comes with a color. Typically, the qualitative targets remain in red, whereas the quantitative targets would be in green or yellow.

Colors carry the following indications:

- The red indicates that the probability of getting hit is LOW, but if price finally gets to it, the probability of reversal is HIGH.

- The yellow indicates that the probability of getting hit is intermediate, and if hit, it will likely cause a temporary retracement in the order of 0.382 to 0.618.

- The green indicates that the probability of getting hit is high, and if hit, it has a low probability of causing a retracement; if it does, it should be a shallow retracement, in the order of 0.214 to 0.382.

I hope this answers your questions.

Thank you.

David Alcindor
======================================


Let me know whether this answers your question.


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Now that I re-read it, I can see that it does not quite get in the depth of the REVERSAL vs. RETRACEMENT ...

In short: A reversal would occur with high-probability IF and once price hits a QUAL-target (i.e.: TG-Hi or TG-Lo). By reversal, this means that price would fall below the lowest point within a structural level. It may not reach a all-historical high or low, but in terms of structural analysis, it would push price to reach below the level of the prior lowest low in a prior UP-trend, or the reach above the level of the prior highest level in a prior DOWN-trend, hence its reversal status.

In contrast, a QUANT-Target would tend to define future R/S levels, simply as price "walks" to that level and turns around to retrace at a 0.214, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.786 or 0.886 Fib level, depending on the strength of the target - However, it will fail to go any lower than a double-top/bottom. Hence, this push-back is simply shallower and not representing a reversal in reference to the trend. It will merely retrace.

I hope this shed a bit more light in the definition.

David
+1 Reply
04 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------------------
$BTCUSD: TG-Hi tells price:

- "I'm a Quant-Target! ... Not a cheap Qual-Target. Get lost!"

snapshot


via @tradingview
--------------------


snapshot



Here is a typical behavior of Quant-Targets. Mean. She's just plain mean.

BACA < 487.51 would confirm effect.


David
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Wolfe wave in the making?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Absolutely. There is always an intricate geometry gaping its lines wide open at night, chilling the hooded spine of little red wandering traders in these geometric woods - David
Reply
04 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------------
$BTCUSD - Model signals bulls entrenched @ 474.83; Await with batons in hooves:

snapshot


via @tradingview $BTC #bitcoin
----------------------


snapshot



Crypto'ers,

(Ugly) purple target is left without Qual- vs. Quant- designation. This will be refined once more data comes through, to further define the strength of the market.

In the mean time, bulls are digging trenches, sharpening sticks and clunking their own little weapons down there, in the $474.83 bloody muck.

Cheers,


David
+1 Reply
04 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------------------
$BTCUSD / #bitfinex is moving on down:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #litecoin
-----------------------


 


David
Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
so if 483 does not hold us till tomorrow morning than 474 is the next target which will probably will not hold us.
If we break past 495 we will see a reversal to 550.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
Hello @EliX:

The model does not take time into consideration. So, there could not be a measure of time beyond which one event would occur over another - Although I wish I could devise such a sequential forecast, but it might be a real erratic game after that.

Instead, I wrote down within the chart levels beyond which a momental change would gain a greater chance of occurring. For instance, the test of the 487.51 level and its subsequent failure is a very important indicator that the floor lacks the bullish force to counter attack at that level. instead, the market is telling you that it is willing to cede at this level, consolidate over a cluster of candles so as to allow traders to shift positions once stop-losses from former buyers and selling orders for impending bears come into alignment in the stacking orders of asks and bids - A lot of crackling is occurring right at these exchange point, and the tend to become a nexus for resistance and support in the future, once price comes back to revisit it ... And it will, I can guarantee you that.

In fact, if you take a look at that "nexus" in question, you will see that it is done is a very orderly, geometric way, as if the bulls and bears were herded and penned into a very well controlled constraint - See chart below:

snapshot


In a way, you could also say that the same exchange has occurred at the forecast reversal level, where bulls and bears where ready to have it against one another in "tight quarters" that demanded a larger area of exchange (i.e.: a narrowly defined vertical amplitude of values against a narrowly defined range of time), except that in the second, smaller space, only a smaller group of traders decided to join in the brawl at that later time, hence the proportionality is reduced, but the geometry is preserved:


snapshot



As a passing observation, I find it interesting that the rectangle that defines the top reversal geometrically is also casting its lowest corner right at that infamous 483.00 which I had forecast as a probable overhead resistance before it failed it multiple times until today. Now, watch that level causing a probably equal but opposite problem as price may decide to frack its way down for potable underground water.

The value that the model just generate ("TG-x = 474.83 - 04 SEP 2014") represents a low-probability event for the time being. As said above, the market is negotiating itself out of the 487.51 level, and if a reversal is indeed supposed to occur (as the Qual-Target have defined the TG-Hi at 495.17 and hit it today), then a lot of exchange will need to take place, and a lot of hopes, failures and lost gains are bound to occur.

Watch this happen as price bob up and down here, or in any other reversal zone, if it does happen - It's all a probability game. Right now, the interest is getting out of the muck, let the market pace itself into impulsive waves as soon as it shapes itself into a moving engine.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
07 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
---------------------
$BTCUSD - New TG-Lo = 470.43 - TG-x becomes TG-1 = 474.83:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin $USD #forex
-------------------


snapshot



Cheers,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Interesting, I was charting 4h and counting waves and subwaves on 2 other degrees (up and down) and went short (took profit on one of the two orders at 477 and holding one more for lower lows). In 4h it did look like we were at a 4C point before dropping below 483. 15m looks a lot more grainy, so to speak.

Did the lower targets get invalidated with current price action in your opinion? (say 452-390-etc)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
On my iPhone right now - Won't be at a charting software until tomorrow - David
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
No prob...btc-e's chart is widly different. Explains the divergence.
snapshot
(sub wave count might be off)
Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

Your Target-Lo 470.43 (red) was hit. Excellent analysis again. Do you now expect a reversal to higher levels the coming days?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
2 years ago
Hi, @eYou - Thank you. Yes, the reversal seems to be underway. However, I would want to see a significant advance against overhead structures. Best would be a higher high above 479.98 - David
Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS 4xForecaster
2 years ago
if the reversal does happen how high are you anticipating the high to be able to reach in this bear market?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
2 years ago
Hello @EliX - I have not taken the time to look at it yet, as most of the current activity is noise during consolidation - I could give you the current 488.27 value that just came out, but it would be the same as serving a strawberry rhubarb pie without cooking the dough - Some things need a little longer warming and cuddling in the harmonic arms of mother Mathematica - David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you, David! For my understanding and learning, in case of a higher high above 479.98 do you target the 495 level as illustrated in your chart here
snapshot
or is price action to 563.27 still a possibility for this reversal as you posted in this chart
snapshot
(Thank you for all your time and effort you put into providing such analysis. This is great stuff for newbies like me.)
Reply
eYou eYou
2 years ago
Your answer to Elix says it all :-) Thank you
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
2 years ago
@eYou - Oh, okay - I was ready to write a poem or something - Too bad.

JK

David
Reply
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