Target Hit \ High Probability Reversal | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1351 25 12

So, there it is. Target got hit on both counts per forecast, at:

1 - TG-1 = 490.03 - 01 SEP 2014


2 - TG-Hi = 495.17 - 01 SEP 2014.
(See prior analysis and forecast here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/chaqqrrF/)

As per definition, the qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Hi and TG-Lo) defines an area of low-probability of getting hit due to the strain necessary to hiss price to those extremes. However, if and once price ever get there, it will act as a reversal level with high probability.

Such target is represented by TG-Hi = 495.17 - 01 SEP 2014, hence expect a significant reversal at that level. First floor will provide soft support at at 483.00. If floor holds, then the reversal scenario would have to be questioned. For now, it's reversal to lower lows as per quantitative target definition.

Once this consolidation settles, tune in for new predictive analyses/forecasts.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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07 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
$BTCUSD - New TG-Lo = 470.43 - TG-x becomes TG-1 = 474.83:

via @tradingview | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin $USD #forex


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
Interesting, I was charting 4h and counting waves and subwaves on 2 other degrees (up and down) and went short (took profit on one of the two orders at 477 and holding one more for lower lows). In 4h it did look like we were at a 4C point before dropping below 483. 15m looks a lot more grainy, so to speak.

Did the lower targets get invalidated with current price action in your opinion? (say 452-390-etc)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster IvanLabrie
On my iPhone right now - Won't be at a charting software until tomorrow - David
IvanLabrie 4xForecaster
No prob...btc-e's chart is widly different. Explains the divergence.
(sub wave count might be off)
eYou 4xForecaster
Hi David,

Your Target-Lo 470.43 (red) was hit. Excellent analysis again. Do you now expect a reversal to higher levels the coming days?
+1 Reply
Hi, @eYou - Thank you. Yes, the reversal seems to be underway. However, I would want to see a significant advance against overhead structures. Best would be a higher high above 479.98 - David
BitcoinGuru 4xForecaster
if the reversal does happen how high are you anticipating the high to be able to reach in this bear market?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster BitcoinGuru
Hello @EliX - I have not taken the time to look at it yet, as most of the current activity is noise during consolidation - I could give you the current 488.27 value that just came out, but it would be the same as serving a strawberry rhubarb pie without cooking the dough - Some things need a little longer warming and cuddling in the harmonic arms of mother Mathematica - David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
Thank you, David! For my understanding and learning, in case of a higher high above 479.98 do you target the 495 level as illustrated in your chart here or is price action to 563.27 still a possibility for this reversal as you posted in this chart (Thank you for all your time and effort you put into providing such analysis. This is great stuff for newbies like me.)
eYou eYou
Your answer to Elix says it all :-) Thank you
+1 Reply
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