2 Hour chart
If this wave 2 only retraced to the .38% then this wave 4 should get to past .50% and hopefully to the .618%. It cant go below the top of wave 1 (where I drew a line). That being said, I think we will have a wave 5 up and it just does not appear that it will break through. Also, if my cycles as somewhat close to being correct, then that also suggest that we are not ready to make a bull run. I am still eyeing mid March for the bottom.
Ok, back to the X wave. If this X wave fails, then what comes next is another a, b, c pattern down. That would be the last and final a, b, c move down. That a, b, c move would equate to the Z wave. So short term, I expect us to drop to around the .618% retracement in the next couple days. Then move up for wave 5, up probably to the line. Then a 3 weeks long a,b,c dump.
One of the characteristics of a 4th wave is that it is supposed to break the trend line. I'd say we did that. So now I see two possible scenarios. Either the A wave has already completed and we are now in the B wave....which would have to break the channel. OR..we still need a 5th wave down. I am hoping for a 5th so that I can be a little more sure before jumping in. BUT...BUT. if we do have a 5th...then it should be shorter than the 3rd this time. My measurements on the 1st and 3rd show that the 3rd is shorter than the 1st. That means that the 3rd cannot be the shortest and therefore the 5th should be under the 1 to 1 measurement of the 3rd. If we do get a 5th then I am expecting a 50% to 61% bounce for the B wave (green box area). GL
ascending wedge for the 5th...break coming very soon