harryBitcoin
Long

Pre-bubble indicators.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1634 31 20
Main explanation is on the chart.

Another thing to note is that OKCoin quarterly futures barely retrace in relation to the spot price and the smaller time frame futures . I interpret this is bullish as the longer term investors (quarterly) see a bright future and are reluctant to sell.

Bullish news includes the 21 Inc. investment and obviously the upcoming BitLicense and Winklevoss ETF .

Comments and criticisms are welcome!
Nice job. I'm optimistic.
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harryBitcoin BlockchainBoss
Thanks
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The faster we get the ETFs going the better. Any news on when the Winklevoss ETF comes online?
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harryBitcoin kenzboard
Not a clue. As far as I know they are just waiting for the BitLicense to be finalised. It is currently in another 30-day comment period which is set to end on the 27th of March (ref: http://www.coindesk.com/30-day-comment-period-bitlicense-begins/). After that I have no idea as to how quickly it will take for it to be implemented. As soon as possible I hope!
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I agree that weekly MACD is a strong indicator of a new bubble. What's your timeframe for the new ATH and how high do you think it will be?
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
Is that really 60,000 USD as the upper range of the high? And all by 2 months from now?
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
And can you explain why April 13th is your "launch" date?
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harryBitcoin rivet.popper
Hi rivet.popper. The 13th of April just happens to be where the indicators converge on this chart in a similar way to previous bubbles. However, if you look at my previous chart you can see that it is also the point where the current support meets the major down trend to form a triangle. Here is where I would expect a break out upwards.
Buy the dip. Just wait for it first.


As for the $60,000; this is only my third published chart and I didn't realised you could scroll upwards once published. This figure was random and it was supposed to be open ended. I really have no idea what the peak price would be but would say around $3000 as an incredibly rough guess.

Although 2 months is very soon I'd say it is realistic. The ETF should be announced soon and money will be pouring into Bitcoin as a precursor to this. History shows that, although the down trends take ages, the uptrends are incredibly rapid.
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Thank you, I updated my post with a reference to this :D
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harryBitcoin JustJoeTrader
Hi JustJoeTrader. Thanks. Would love to read your post if you could send me a link.
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JustJoeTrader harryBitcoin
https://www.facebook.com/JustJoeTrader
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harryBitcoin JustJoeTrader
Cheers.
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Very interesting!
But for what reasons number 60000 is chosen?
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harryBitcoin pepper_nax
Thanks pepper_nax.
$60,000 was chosen at random. I didn't realise that you could scroll the charts up once published. That final price range was supposed to be open ended. I can't really say at what price it will peak at but would say at least $3000.
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I think Bitcoin only have one direction, and that is UP!
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Good work. But it works on Bitstamp charts, not in other charts.
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harryBitcoin breathingdog
Hi breathingdog. Thanks. Have just had a look and you're right.

The only exchange with data that goes as far back as BitStamp is BTC-e. Looking at it, the MACD making new highs is the same on BTC-e; indicating a bubble. However, on BTC-e, the Parabolic SAR value was flipped at the end of May 2014. This obviously wasn't a bubble and I can't explain why it's done that (or why it hasn't on BitStamp).

The Parabolic SAR value on BTC-e also hasn't flipped in the last couple of weeks either like BitStamp. Even though, at the beginning of the last bubble, BTC-e flipped a week before BitStamp I don't see this as cause for concern. There are many other indicators which are also precursors (although not exclusively) to a bubble which are occurring on all exchanges. These include the price approaching the centre line of the Bollinger Bands as well as it being close to crossing the 'Alligator's Teeth'.(the red line) on the William's Alligator indicator (all on weekly resolution).

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oh well your rockect ship crashed on the launch pad ... better luck next time ;)
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Hi Yip Yip,

I can understand the chart is a little misleading about the 'launch date'. I don't expect any bubble immediately; the triangle that we're currently in has been formed for a while and as per usual I don't expect us to break out until we get right to the end of it.

The launch pad is still being built and will be ready for take off by the middle of April as per this chart from last week:
Buy the dip. Just wait for it first.


Stock up on the dip; there's not point launching a rocket if there's no one on board ;)
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Hi Harry. Now after this dump, it seems we dropped out of your wedge but have re-entered today. Are you still feeling the love here?
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harryBitcoin rivet.popper
Hi rivet.popper.

Yeah, this has pushed my support line down a bit which in turn has pushed the point of the candle, the possible 'launch date', to the 24th of April. This, however, means that the two triangles now come to a point in the same place unlike my previous chart. So, even though the date is further away, there is more certainty to it.


My only worries are the high Williams % Ratio SMA (light green line) and the MACD crossing over (both on the daily charts). However, a similar thing happened in the triangle which I compare this one to at the beginning of the 2013 bubble. There is definitely room for a little bit more down though. In fact it's happening as I write this.

I'm still pro-bubble though.

snapshot
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rivet.popper harryBitcoin
Thanks very much. Do you mind making an active chart for this that I can fill in as we go forward in April?
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harryBitcoin rivet.popper
Of course. How do I do that though? Am quite new to TradingView.
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rivet.popper harryBitcoin
I wish I knew. Didn't you make one in your previous chart though? I commented on it a few days ago.
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rivet.popper harryBitcoin
Just one with a play button would be great.
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harryBitcoin rivet.popper
Think to do that I need to publish another chart and I'd rather not do that unless there's a big update to avoid getting spammy. Sorry.

Will upload a new one soon when there is something to report though.
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rivet.popper harryBitcoin
Harry, we just got torn a new one today. Does this invalidate your chart now? I'm not sure if we're still within the support you've depicted here or not. In any case we are certainly testing it.
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harryBitcoin rivet.popper
Yeah, this (the chart with the triangle, not the one for this thread) chart is definitely invalidated now. I don't really have the time to analyse it at the moment so I will be staying out of any positions until the 3D MACD has bottomed out which could be a while.

However, quick look shows that, on a linear chart, we came up against the long term support line and obviously failed to break through.

Looking at my 'Pre-bubble indicators' chart, it doesn't look good either; the MACD histogram will close lower unless the price corrects this week so it's not looking good.

On another note, it's only 3 days till the BitLicence comment period is over.
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rivet.popper harryBitcoin
"...only 3 days till the BitLicence comment period is over."

Does the ETF get approved right after that (assuming the comments are positive)?
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harryBitcoin rivet.popper
I doubt the ETFs will be launched immediately. As far as I know there could be yet another comment period. I don't know much about the process of creating legislation.

The Bitcoin Investment Trust (http://www.bitcointrust.co/) has found a way around the regulation issue and are just waiting for a ticker symbol to be asssigned.

Again, I don't really know a huge amount about the process for the ETF's so look around yourself before taking this as gospel.

p.s. if you want some hopium, check out the price of gold after the SPDR Gold Trust ETF launched.
snapshot


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rivet.popper harryBitcoin
I'm most interested in the Winkelvii fund, since it will become the model for most worldwide funds as they get regulated in their home countries. This thing has got to get launched soon or the twins are on the hook for a lot of money, since they own 1% of all Bitcoins.
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