Patladj.
Short

Warn: BTC is going to sink to the bottom

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I expect price of $10 for a brief time. I expect it to reach this value fairly soon in a short burst of panic selling. Then I expect a stabilization between $70 - $100 per BTC which is BTC's fair value according to it's market cap for practical usage. My opinion is based on google             trends, calculation of people who use the coin practically, interest from conventional investors which is basically non-existent. I do analize the fundaments behind Bitcoin rise and decline since the last summer, and I've been perdicting it correctly.
Technicals: clear bearish divergence, also warn: using log chart is very misleading. Also I find some technical similarities with Gold/USD decline from April 2013. But I do believe Gold             will recover eventually unlike BTC , which is not based on anything hard and can easily be replaced by some other (better) cryptocurrencies . Now dollar is on the move up. We need to buy dollars. Gold             and Silver             will have their final drop during which BTC will sink to the bottom. I do project price of $8-$9 for Silver             , and then I will be all IN Silver             . I give my advice on this. First buy dollars, wait it to exploade, then sell it for Silver             . Forget BTC for now for anything else than shorting it.
RamaDeda
2 years ago
Very funny analisys. Thanks for sharing
+2 Reply
JLT PRO
2 years ago
you are correct! the dollar is on the move! But BTC at 10$ would be awesome. Adoption would be through the roof. and the best thing about a sky rocketing dollar is a bear market on the stock exchanges. Put options all day! 100% weekly returns no problem!
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Patladj. JLT
2 years ago
Sorry, frankly I don't see any signs of "adoption". Bitcoin must be accepted in private banks as a currency in order to even begin thinking about adoption. If one deny banks "need-to-exist" then he/she is unaware of basic history facts that Banks and legal money and property ownership arbitrage and inheritance have been a major engine for the free market civilized western world for the past centuries, and has no viable alternatives yet. It's funny how one may simply loose his/her password for the wallet and loose all his/her wealth. It's funny how one may think that economy may prosper without banks to accumulate money inside and distribute it correctly to those who can really make stable returns from them (a condition for a bank to be sucessfull) I don't mean central banks. I say "private banks", I mean it, with no support from the central banks (the silly situation which is currently in the western world)

When I speak with many bitcoin s.c. believers , they all deny these basic historical facts about the banks and money and property legal arbitrage. They think all these things are bad, or even worse, many don't even mind the facts. Actually without these things we will go back to the economic stone age. When there's a bubble created from huge percentage of such "thinkers", you don't expect them to have enough money be able to rise or even support the current market capitalisation of Bitcoin. That's why it will collapse.
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astral Patladj.
2 years ago
Apparently you're not a bitcoin person, talking about banks supporting bitcoin... Bitcoin has the potential to be a revolution in money, do away with the banks!
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Patladj. astral
2 years ago
Do not get so angry. Our opinions overlap partly. I am a sound money person. I hate fiat money like you. It's just that it will not be that (simple teen-age-like) way: with a password a e-wallet, and without banks. There will be a deflationary currency, it will be legal. There will be courts arbitrage and inheritance of wealth. Central banks will not be able to print it.
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astral Patladj.
2 years ago
Sorry, didn't mean to come across as angry, I posted this for the sake of discussion. I respect your opinions!
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Please look into Bitcoin more thoroughly. A central bank has trouble posting a surplus of reserves but many BTC exchanges that have been audited have a surplus of just over 100% in their reserves. The Bitcoin model has the potential to replace the central banking fractional reserve system we have. It will take time, but it is an invention that will benefit the masses. The intrinsic value of Bitcoin is more than $10. Its intrinsic value is based on its limited supply, the ease of transacting money across the world and its use as a transparent payments system. We could even utilize the Blockchain and Bitcoin to reduce corruption and have truly free and fair elections, as every transaction or 'vote' can be seen on the Blockchain.

I think Bitcoin is being manipulated in a similar way to Gold. Supress the price and acquire more. I think Bitcoin is still undervalued and when the reward for mining Bitcoin and the rate at which new Bitcoin enter the ecosystem halves in 2016, another major price shock to the upside will occur. Only all 21 million BTC will be in existence in 2150 or after. I agree with you that it may decline but it has such a long journey to go and I think that there is more resistance to the downside than the upside in the long-run.
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Patladj. JamieHolmes
2 years ago
I agree partially. There is no need of central banks. They do damage. But we can't live the quality of life we have now, if there are no banks of any kind. I beleive in decentralized and unregulated private banks solely responsible for their well being and fairness, and competitive agencies for investing and depositing in multiple banks for risk mitigation. We can't have economic growth without banks (ot other bank-like tructures) channeling public money to entrepeneourship. In such case huge influence will have only private relations and hence investment bank-like structures will appear as the market demand for investment still exists. I speak for sound investments with a risk solely for the organisation/fund/bank which undertake it. As they will fail if they do not invest properly and there is nobody to save them. the loss of public money in case of fraud or a failure of the bank will be limited to the amount of it deposited by deposit-diversification agencies as they will also compete for lower risk ratios like the banks will compete for higher trust/ratings by allowing audits with a different frequencies (if they want to, nothing is obligated, nothing is centralized). Fraud is possible, but I don't think there will be such on a grand scale or collapses on such a grand scale such as they are possible right now with the current centralized (publicly audited) system. I do not believe in publicly audited systems. This applies not only for the financial services but for any kind of services which do the state offer.
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Patladj. JamieHolmes
2 years ago
Btw, I'm not saying that BTC's intrinsic value is $10. I said it's between $70 and $100, but it may drop, if another crypto replace it, and that is quite possible by me. Read again the whole.
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