Uptrend breaktout from flag?

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So today, I've modified my other chart with flag formation and to my surprise I see very possible breakout coming.
The EMA 50 (The light blue line) works very often as resistance (blue arrows)/support (orange arrows) line in history of BTC             . We can see that this EMA has been touch on 30.09.2013, than worked as support line for weeks in April and May 2014. It has been crossed in August 2014, where it become resistance line. The price touched it twice, 10.11.2014 and not long ago, in July.

However the main thing on the chart is flag formation , which in theory indicates continuation of trend and end of correction. In the coming weeks we can see, the breakout of resistance line of flag.

In my opinion, most likely scenario is that the price will bounce of resistance EMA 50 line, than return to crossed resistance line of flag formation and most likely bounce off EMA 200 line. After this, we will have have healthy uptrend, which in theory should go to 1200-1300.

Of course I can be wrong and we will go to the bottom of flagpole (black line)
Trade active:

Small short term update.
So on the above chart, we see some signs that suggest small correction (not the big one I mentioned on the 1W chart).
In summary: Shooting star candle bar with higher than average volume.
Bearish divergence on RSI, which is overbought a lot.

Most probable scenario: small correction to 250, than the price will create double top formation (or triangle) and than big correction to EMA 200 line (on 1W chart)
Comment: So my last update about short term correction was too early. I'll update chart again when I get signal for correction.
Trade active:

Does the 1st train stop is at level 376?
We will see.

Looking for red candle on 1d chart today. More updates after it.
Trade active:

After the red candle and short correction I think we will retest last top and than the right correction will come.

On the chart we see strong Bullish Piercing candle. (Reverse signal bar)
Trade active: I'm shorting this move.
Trade active: So my last update, didn't work out and I've closed short position.

However, looking at the chart, there is high probability, that we will finally have a corrective move.

Trade active: It seems that we are in the "silent before the storm" phase. Today we will probably hit 435 area. However I don't think that this move will lead to resistance at 460.
I'm still looking for bigger correction (to 250-260 area).

After the red candle and short correction I think we will retest last top and than the right correction will come.
Nice job!
+1 Reply
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