Who knows what will happen to BTC in the future? But based on this pattern and doing some calculations, you can see every cycle (green box) has been divided by 5, which means its power for going up is decreasing in every cycle. If this trend continues until 2025, it will suggest BTC top for the next cycle would be 55k in July 2024 with a drop up to 9k in August 2025. If this scenario happens, there would be a reverse in the market, and BTC dominance will go down more deeply. Just imagine one day you don't need to analyze BTCf first to see how the market is doing. So basically I don't think BTC is a good investment for the future as some Alts are performing far better than BTC does.
yes, funny how everyone ignores the 80% resets that are all part of the cycle.
bL1TZZ
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Nice Work.. But I disagree, BTC to 9k? Not so sure... Michael Saylor, Jack Dorsey, and the Elon's of this world will simply just keep accumulating creating more demand.
Also, country / corporate adoption should only rise from here.
Whenever BTC crossed a crucial lifelong trendline, that signified a proper bullrun. BTC was rejected from this trendline at the ETH.
Gains were approx 1500% first crossing, 2nd crossing was approx 1000%, third could bring 500% which would bring the price closer to 500k+ IMO.
Though it would be nice to not have to worry about BTC taking a shit, therefore, taking the market down with it. I believe over time BTC correlation would wane as soon as all these projects are actually being adopted.
Though I hate centralized banking shit called XRP and everything about it.. Imagine they can nab 1k Financial institutions from Swift's 10k customer base? BTC reliance wouldn't matter so much as they forge their own destiny.
The same applies to all the other coins.
But for now, They all follow their King, Boss, and Commander in Chief.
MaziB
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You are not accounting for Halving Difficulty Rate and scarceness and current institutional adoption rate and realities ... The 5% decrease is meant to represent halvings???
But your calculations does show a window into concept of deminishing returns.... My Prediction is 95k Between Dec and March 2022. 450k by Dec 2025 into 2026.
Ehsan_1307
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@MaziB, we have had Halving Difficulty over this 11 years in BTC, haven’t we? And despite the fact it hasn’t been able to go up strongly like previous years.
I don’t know what do you mean by 5% but you may mean deciding by 5 which is in my chart? If yes, the ATH in every cycle is devided by 5 for example 20k / 5 = 4.
suvny21
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i think a mistake has been happened :)
Ehsan_1307
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@santana2331, I have to block you as you are repeating this in analysis.