Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC has rallied through the heavy overhead resistance at the 78.6% retrace, and is now trading inside of the "buy zone." With that said, it's important to keep in mind that the 78.6% retrace is a critical support/resistance level. That's why I made it the beginning of the buy zone. If BTC can hold above the 78.6% retrace, and therefore above the huge pivot lows form 1/17 and 2/25, we will have essentially defined that level as powerful new support. That's why I made it the bottom of the buy zone. Now with that said, I'm a bit concerned about the rapid rally into the buy zone, because we're somewhat overextended. If BTC falls back below the buy zone, it will have been a failed breakout above the 78.6% retrace, and thus, a failed attempt to stay inside of buy zone territory. If BTC can't stay above the 786, and confirm sustained trading in that level, then we don't have a buy signal.
As I write this, BTC is starting to roll back over toward the 786. So, it will be very important to see if BTC can hold that level. BTC is now falling back below the buy zone, so this could be a failed breakout into the buy zone territory. There hasn't been any confirmation in the buy zone, so there is no confirmed signal to buy.
As you can see, I've reduced the "no trade zone," and I've raised the sell zone. If BTC starts to fail here, and if it falls back into the top of the sell zone, I will be salivating at short side trades. The top of the sell zone lines up with the 1200 EMA. Therefore, if we get into the sell zone, that would show that the 1200 EMA has failed to hold as support, and that would be a very bearish indicator. We're almost overbought on the daily RSI, and we're in and out of overbought territory on the 4 hour RSI. Additionally, thers is a bearish divergence on the MACD. So, these developments lead me to believe that we could see a failure to stay inside of the buy zone, which is why I'm not a buyer just yet. I want to see more signs of sustainability and strength (above the 786) and I'm not seeing that just yet. Ideally, we'll see BTC roll back over into the sell zone, so I can light up the sell side trades, and ride the next wave lower.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Looks like the 'Boogie Whale' surfaced and smashed his big red 'Sell Market' button after he was done doing his business. Bulls who FOMO'd into the market at the top of the swing with over-leveraged positions got liquidated BIG TIME!
(Don't worry, however... He'll keep resurfacing again, and again, and again -- toying with both Bulls and Bears. Get used to it.)
Here are 5 tips to help you better swim/trade in the whale pool:
Rule #1... NEVER EVER buy at the top or short the bottom (especially with leverage).
Rule #2... NEVER EVER go 'all in' based on other peoples' analysis. (Conflicts of interest are rampant)
Rule #3... ALWAYS take responsibility for YOUR trades. (The trade starts and ends with you.)
Rule #4... Cut your losses ASAP. (Hope is not a strategy.)
Rule #5... Many times, not taking a position, is the BEST position. (Capital preservation is fundamental.)
*There are many other rules, but these are merely a reminder of some basics to help prevent you from blowing up your account.
P.S. Do your own research (DYOR). Nothing is more pathetic than blaming others for YOUR losses.
REMEMBER: Trading is *competitive* mental gymnastics. You have to be flexible and be prepared to do a back-flips, cartwheels, and whatever else is necessary to guard, yet build your capital. Simple, yes. Easy, no.
Cheers!
NicolasBourbaki
⋅
@dralerte, not a fan of #4 cuz you have to give yourself time to be right unless you are literally perfect every time, but #1 and #5 are pure gold. In some sense, almost all you need to know to trade profitably.
dralerte
⋅
@NicolasBourbaki, I see your point... At the same time, sometimes it's better to bail out early in a losing position (and re-position if necessary) before you fall victim of 'hoping' and, thus convincing yourself things will turn in your favor. That said, I agree, #1 & #5 pretty much sum up what trading is all about. IMO, one can get very far trading with those simple rules.
NicolasBourbaki
⋅
@dralerte, you're definitely right about the hoping part. it's so insidious, hope lol...it's sometimes hard to tell when you are actually hoping and justifying vs when you are actually being objective and just picking up what the chart is laying down. hope kept me in my usdcad trade 10 pips too long tonight. but completely agree that 1 and 5 can take you very far.
dralerte
⋅
@NicolasBourbaki, The entry fee of 'Hope' has proven to be both profitable (sometimes) and regrettable (most times). I've stopped paying that fee a long time ago and have since slept much better ;)
NicolasBourbaki
⋅
@dralerte, yeah, hope can sometimes go your way, but not due to skill but rather luck. good traders try to minimize the effects of chance on their trading which means not relying on hope. Regarding sleep, however, I'm going to bed :) goodnight
@dralerte, Probably the best advice since being on TV!... I've taken a screenshot and will put it on my wall.. excellent.
Kind regards... Hubris
Raimondoz
⋅
I normally don't ever follow top ideas published but couldn't help watching you and d4rk's calls for the whole past 3 months. They have been exceptionally incorrect and I have no idea how your ideas make it to the top over some other highly professional and more objective traders.
Sparky123
⋅
@Raimondoz, who are the other "highly professional and more objective traders"?
(Don't worry, however... He'll keep resurfacing again, and again, and again -- toying with both Bulls and Bears. Get used to it.)
Here are 5 tips to help you better swim/trade in the whale pool:
Rule #1... NEVER EVER buy at the top or short the bottom (especially with leverage).
Rule #2... NEVER EVER go 'all in' based on other peoples' analysis. (Conflicts of interest are rampant)
Rule #3... ALWAYS take responsibility for YOUR trades. (The trade starts and ends with you.)
Rule #4... Cut your losses ASAP. (Hope is not a strategy.)
Rule #5... Many times, not taking a position, is the BEST position. (Capital preservation is fundamental.)
*There are many other rules, but these are merely a reminder of some basics to help prevent you from blowing up your account.
P.S. Do your own research (DYOR). Nothing is more pathetic than blaming others for YOUR losses.
REMEMBER: Trading is *competitive* mental gymnastics. You have to be flexible and be prepared to do a back-flips, cartwheels, and whatever else is necessary to guard, yet build your capital. Simple, yes. Easy, no.
Cheers!