This idea is based on the belief that the 2019 to March 2020 harmonic is repeating. We can draw two similar proportioned harmonics to the current price action that gives different paths.
This is a follow up to an old idea that so far has held.
One justification for a drop to 11k is the held belief that the current bull cycle is longer and shallower than the previous bull cycle, but economic circumstances mainly Feds' QE infinity policy has overshot the price. The Feds have announced curbing money expansion. Add to that China's ban on crypto.
Another justification is that there are plenty of CME gaps and inefficiencies remaining to be filled. I have shown in the past that the 9.6k gap and below have been closed by the CME internally.
CME gap is a joke lol! Absolutely no reason to fill that. It is not even the No 1 BTC derivative platform anymore! So CME close it's doors on weekends and other holidays and doesn't treat BTC as a 24*7 market which ideally it should and we expect the market to revisit the price difference occurred during the closed hours of a No 2 derivative platform? That sounds absurd for any sane person but definitely a good tool to spread FUD among amateur traders.
Btw China ban is very old news and it already got factored in few years back. Regardless twitter global adoption alone would take the price to 100k+ easy and wouldn't be surprised if FB and Insta follow suit! Also good chance that most of these tips would be accumulated and reducing the supply even more. Do you know in the US alone Starbucks has 1.4B$+ in unspent digital cash by their customers and they already stated 200M$+ in that has been dormant for years and would never be redeemed? The same thing could happen with tips atleast a good chunk of it. Also worth noting 20% of BTC is already lost/stranded wallets.
Your charting skills are nice but gotto keep an eye out for ground reality as well and in the current climate 11k won't even happen in dreams unless we all could travel back in time ;)
@santana2331, Well some one took so much time in making that chart for us and sharing their idea in detail so gotto respect that and share my opinion in the same manner instead of commenting nothing ;)
derevo
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@santana2331, wrong!
RaakeshhNair
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@v184, Lets leave TA aside and logically think about BTC price action. Elsavador and other South American countries who used to use dollar are now making btc official. Now in such a circumstance USA wont surely like to loose it dominance and we know it from history how it reacts.
Now if BTC goes up straight up from here, if not all many from these SA countries would become neo rich which in turn would uplift the nations economy itself. Will the so called ultra rich people or rich countries like that? No they wont!
I have been a btc believer since its inception but this situation of specific countries legalizing BTC and dropping out of dollar for payments against the wishes of IMF is worrying.
As i understand it btc wont lift off to new highs unless the pockets of ultra rich are full of it.
v184
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@RoxN, Glad you kept TA aside ;) Good points and let's dig a little deep into that!
El salvador still accepts USD along with BTC! The GDP of most countries which could potentially follow suit are less than 50BS and some are in the millions. For instance El Salvador GDP is ~27BS which won't even put a dent to USD.
Moreover all of this would even matter only if countries start using BTC as a reserve currency! Currency used for daily transactions wouldn't do much to the value of that currency. Everyone knows this especially the FED's hence they allowed crypto payments in the mainland too.
The top ten countries holding USD as the reserve currency would never switch to BTC and the number one holder is China and we all know by now they definitely won't ;)
Also worth noting every country recongnizes holding just USD as a reserve currency won't be safe against hyperinflation and the likes so they hold gold and other assets as well and shouldn't be a surprise to see US is the biggest holder of gold reserves.
So yep I don't really think BTC would or even could replace USD or any other currency in any meaningful way but BTC could go places as the new asset class :)
Also worth noting BTC is probably the only crypto that can be called a commodity in the US with utmost certainty and less purview from the SEC and the likes!
Think what would happen to BTC price if SEC aka Gensler decides to open Ripple like cases against other cryptocurrencies deeming it as a security? He already said almost that in the latest hearing.
BTC dominance is currently at ~42% a couple of Ripple like cases on couple of other major crypto tokens would easily double it and that would put BTC at 100k ;) BTC at 100k is inevitable and unstoppable one way or another imho! The companies holding BTC in their balance sheet know this hence they remain BTC maximalist.
RaakeshhNair
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@v184, I agree with you on most points and that BTC wont replace USD as reserve currency.
I also foresee BTC reaching 100k and much more in future. I am only suggesting that it wont happen soon or before The companies have a handful of it & the The companies wont buy their share of BTC at current price, The race to buy btc has already started but dont ignore the fact that the race to buy btc at the cheapest is the ONLY motto of these entities.
v184
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@RoxN, Ah makes sense! Sure would be hard to put a timeline on it. Thanks for the discussion :)