I have noted the 1st halving data but it is not matching with 2nd and 3rd halving, therefore I have considered it as an outlier.
Conclusion: As per statistics and past data, BTC bottom should be 300-400 days after its top and 500-550 days before its halving, both converges to End of year 2022.
As per harmonics AB=CD pattern, BTC bottom should be around 13,000 and currently it is trading at 19,000 (October).
As per the calculations, we might see a dump to 10,000 to 13,000 by Dec this year.
17.3k July was not the bottom of the cycle, Bottom is yet to come.
This is not set in stone but the only thing why I would believe this beside some chart provided is that usually in December,November months BTC performance the worst and usually dump's hard. Other than this I don't see any point why the bottom should't be at 20k$ for BTC. But I would love if BTC would drop to 10 K don't get me wrong I would love that so it would be a really Christmas present if it would happen.
ll24llll
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You could have present exactly the same analysis by shifting everything backward so that the forth halving starts at Spring 21 so that it is the exact bottom right now! I don't disagree and don't agree eigther. I see no point in such analysis and just don't know why TW is promoting such ideas...
nicholasilechie
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Great analysis mate, nice to see TV highlighting this at this point, I believe if looked fairly upon would help a lot of people.
I have a similar analysis which I made far back in 2020 November before the start of the rally
As a technical and on-chain analyst, I can say the halving cycle effect analysis so far has yielded the only repetitive accurate timing of the market with minimal error. This chart was what helped me get the best exit prices of the market way back before the top even approached. But one thing to note about the halving effect is that it doesn't predict prices of bitcoin peaks, which I found from the past and the last cycle, it only gives a range or period expectation for the peak and time expectancy to the bottom. Which I believe is more important and better, as price forecast tends to blind traders and investors. Trying to catch the peak or bottom prices is a terrible investing skill that one should refrain from. It's best to buy/sell at a good demand/supply zone rather than seek the lowest price at those respective levels, and for that, this chart does its job well.
I updated the chart in 2021/2022 I highlighted some key levels of market dynamics. The past Accumulation phase The Bull Run / Mark-up phase The distribution phase, and the mark-down phase
We are still in the markdown phase which started in October 2021 according to the data from my chart but interestingly my chart says around October 2022(might be in Oct/Nov) Bitcoin should end the markdown and enter into the accumulation phase.
*Side-note: looking at my chart 😅 it says this week should end the 330+ days count and one-year completes since the peak, 🤞🏽- fingers crossed but anticipating surprises this week.
Generally, this analysis method should not be undermined or disregarded, it has proved effective over the past years, I see it as a behavioral market analysis on bitcoin but when combined with fundamentals it becomes powerful and evident-- at the moment we are having a mining crisis as forsaken Ethereum miners have now jumped into Bitcoin increasing difficulties,
Think about it what effect will it have on bitcoin? On one hand Short term, fewer rewards go around, and miners may be forced to keep selling to cover the cost of production, such would increase supply to the market. On the other hand, this won't be on for a long time, some miners may capitulate and close down as they won't be able to maintain sales, they'd hang on to their bitcoin balance, and after a while, this difficulty will auto-correct,(Satoshi is a genius) and when prices correct market dynamics returns, albeit limited supply retained, this will play a big role in the next rally of 2024. All of this will happen during the accumulation era.
Cheers folks and happy investing😊
Rameeez
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@nicholasilechie, Amazing work hats off! Glad to see we have the same bias and working method.
@nicholasilechie, Thanks. You can use the TV BTCUSD Index now, with more accurate volumes than BLX which is including the wash trading of old Chinese exchanges. On top of that, you can also use intraday timeframes. BTCUSD