Anpu

Bitcoin | One more confirmation of a Downtrend

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I think one more confirmation is never excessive. This analysis won't take us a long time, because it is an extra to my previous one, but with a new interesting finding.

Introduction: I strongly recommend you to read my previous idea before you read this, because some tools migrated from it, and I don't waste your time by repeating why I used them and why they are important.

Anyway I have to explain how I defined Mid Term trends in order not to confuse you. It is simple, Crossovers between 20 and 121 MAs serve as the reversal points between the Trends, and by this thing we can determine duration of the Ones, plus Trend reversals. These lines working accurate in this, you can see it on the Chart.

So despite the Bearish crossover which is an important sign on itself, we have one more confirmation from RSI, and personally I think it is always better when we have more confirmations from different indicators. Look at the RSI indicator: when we were in Uptrends, The RSI have never been in an Oversold zone. Conversely, when we were in a Downtrend the RSI have never been in an Overbought zone. And we see on the Chart that the RSI had visited an Oversold zone, so we can interprete it as a signal, that we are facing a Mid Term downtrend.

We should end at this point, and to thank you for reading this idea I will give you a useful tip (maybe for someone it will be profitable). During a Downtrend the RSI would peak near the 50% level rather than 75%, in other words the 50% level should be considered as an extreme during a Downtrend, and if price is getting above the 50% line the one is potentially in an Overbought zone.

I also should notice that my interpretation of the RSI as a confirmation should be considered as a subjective, because for extreme boundaries I used 75% and 25% values (70% and 30% are standard)

Please write what you think about this idea and share your own ideas.

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Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.

The information given is not a Financial Advise.
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Your 20 and 121 has a nice daily scalp opportunity in them as well. I like that. I focus on 1 MA at a time and some in a ribbon style to see curvature of orders. Overall looks good. Still looking bearish. Still waiting for the old zones. Lets take advantage of this opportunity ^_^
+2 Reply
Anpu AlexSchram
@AlexSchram, yeah 20 and 121 seems very reliable to me and they proved their effectiveness. It is very nice that you find a one more opportunity in using them!
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Anpu AlexSchram
@AlexSchram, And thanks for sharing your idea! Looks interesting)
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considering this we only entering a bear market?
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Anpu AndreyMikhaylov
@AndreyMikhaylov, according to this analysis and some of my previous ones yes. But I am also ready for a retracement, not higher than $11.000 level, because 121 MA is a Dynamic resistance during downtrend (and this line very good at it). I think you can find some more interesting things from some of my previous ideas)
+2 Reply
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