This chart is only valid once the condition indicated is met. Which is breaking below 9200$ as indicated in the chart.
We have three possibilities one of which will work out (again once the condition is met)
The first possibility is finding support on the March 2017 uptrend line which is also the end of the cloud as well as a fib level.
The second possibility is the , basically touching 6k which was the lowest price reached since the exponential growth to 20k.
The third possibility is the coming into play, which will place us at a low of around 3.8 to 4k. This is a previous region. This will be a completely healthy correction for the market and will reset the overbought monthly .
1) 4hr RSI is oversold, cloud resistance at 10.4k. (So we might see a rise to 10.4k to reset the RSI)
2) Also, a pennant is forming (too early to tell, but its halfway) pennants are continuation patterns, so once it breaks the price will be dropping down. (can be seen in the 15 min frame)
if 2) breaks up, then option 1) will come to play.
if 2) drops down then we will be heading to 9.2k
Here is the pennant I'm talking about (remember, it's not complete, so it might not be a pennant, but regardless there is a downtrend line that is being reacted to)
Then based on indicators updated the idea on the 26th of Feb and said that the head and shoulders is not going to work out:
These points are all strong support regions, so we are going to see a rise after each one of them is touched!!
If the price starts falling back down then that would mean it wasn't a true reversal and a lower support is going to be tested.
Well it fell down at 9900 exactly in bitfinex, let's see how this goes now. Are we going down to test 6k? We will find out soon.
I will update this once I have access to a PC so I can look at the chart.
Breakup target: 11300$
Again, fractals aren't reliable, but they have been matching with a small error margin for the past two days as can be seen below: