So, I was really annoyed by the video that was posted on tradingview comparing the 2013/2014 crash to the 2017-2018 crash. Firstly, the fractals on the video were incorrect and totally not compareable. Also the fact that there was the Mt. Gox scam in 2014 were totally left out of the picture.
The author claims that we are about to have the real bubble crash. In a bubble we typically only have bullish sentiment. A lot of people are scared at this moment, the market is absolutely not a 100% bullish, debunking the bubble crash at this point.
Now let's compare it the right way, in the chart we can see in 2013 we formed the exact same bull flag, there were three peaks down, the same as we saw now, followed by a breakout which retested the high after 2nd peak. If we compare those scenarios, we should retest 17k as this is the EXACT same pattern.
I will add more comparisons in the updates, so make sure you check those out aswell!
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In 2013/2014 we had a pullback to the uptrendline before breaking out, just like we are having a pullback now.
Daily RSI before breakout was at 50, daily RSI is now at 50 aswell
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We touched the 0,705 fibonacci line before resuming up to test the high (17k possibly in this scenario)
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BTC wanted to go up after that high retest (as we said retest of 17k) HOWEVER, that's when MT.GOX happened, that was the only reason BTC crashed back then.
I am pretty confident we could move higher after we reached 17k because MT.GOX scam was big.
Now for all of you saying, ugh maybe tether scam? Most large exchanges have enough liquidity now to cope if tether turns out to be a scam. Multibillion companies are now involved in crypto, also Tether is only a VERY small part of the entire crypto market (2.214.112.199 USD in a nearly 500.000.000.000 USD market). So this is only a VERY MINOR part of the entire market
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now let's zoom in a bit: also very very comparible
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I scaled into my first position at 10400, hoping we can test the trendline before confirming reversal parralel channel shows previous resistance and support, buy in between 10200-10400 if we get there. Not alot of bullish volume yet so expecting a little more down before resuming a bull trend
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buyzone coincides wih fibonacci retracement level aswell hoping to hit that 0.618 FIBO retrace
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4H RSI also nearly in oversold territory
Order cancelled
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broke through support, not looking good
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Altho our idea is out of the window, allow me to give this an update.
Possible bottom here on the log scale chart. Wait for bullish conformation, don't try to catch falling knives. Keep a close eye on selling and buying volume.
I scaled into my first position at 10400, hoping we can test the trendline before confirming reversal
parralel channel shows previous resistance and support, buy in between 10200-10400 if we get there.
Not alot of bullish volume yet so expecting a little more down before resuming a bull trend
RJDTC
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woops, that was supposed to go under the update section ;)