Good morning, traders. It looks like we've got things fixed on my end so I should be back without interruption now. Since the last time I posted, price has continued to move as I outlined that it was likely to do, having reached the top of the blue TR and then retraced a bit within it to print an LPS. Price topped out at $6475 which was just above the flag target of $6460. This gave price just over $150 of upward movement. Shorts have continued to drop off significantly (currently at 21473) on Bitfinex as we discussed would happen, with the Shorts-to-Longs ratio now sitting at 0.8797. Additionally, Bitmex shorts and longs are even at this time.
Price is being supported by the 4H pivot, showing expanding volume on the rallies and contracting volume on the reactions. This is bullish price action, but it is a 4H TF and nothing larger so I'd like to see more confirmation via continued rising OBV. Currently, I'm watching for OBV to breach the descending blue resistance line. Overnight, RSI breached its own descending black resistance line and is bullish at 61. MACD is sitting just under the signal line waiting to cross bullishly. There was the slightest hidden bullish divergence between 23:00 CST on 11/3 and 2:00 CST this morning which resulted in the current 4H candle showing price appreciation up through the equilibrium of the blue TR. Traders need to remain vigilant because price needs a nice, strong push up to avoid possible bearish divergence which is likely to be more pronounced on the MACD. This bearish divergence would play into the 1D scenario mentioned below. Spot price is showing strong resistance at $6500 on various exchanges while swap price on Bitmex is showing significant support between $6350 and $6400. This being as it is, Bitstamp is currently showing 500 BTC support at $6300 which is greater than 2x the resistance at any point up to $6800 so far. Local diagonal resistance has been noted with a descending red line on price.
The 15 minute OBV has been trending upward for the past week and has recently breached the descending blue resistance line dating back to 10/15, which is significant on this very small TF. However, it wasn't a strongly bullish break, rather it has been more of riding along the resistance/support for the past two days. If we consider that price is being contained rather than supported, as I have been suggesting based on volume and price action, then that would explain this OBV action since C.O. money is part of the smart money. So, having to sell into the rallies to keep price contained would necessarily have the effect of keeping OBV contained as well. OBV is printing a descending broadening wedge, which gives us the expectation of an increase which should result in a higher price as well. MACD just crossed bullishly and RSI is bullish at 54.5. I'd like to see RSI cleanly break 62.5 on this TF to suggest strong bullishness. Local diagonal resistance and support has been noted with red lines on price.
I will provide and discuss the 1D chart in greater detail during this morning's live stream at 10 a.m. CST as well as upside targets, but it notes that RSI breached the resistance of the triangle it has been printing since its July high and is sitting bullishly at 52.5. MACD is continuing to increase but presents the possibility of hidden bullish divergence printing some time this week, starting at 10/31. MACD is pretty short on that day, so if price drops, as long as it remains above that day's low of $6199, we could likely see a lower low in MACD and a higher low in price, suggesting continued price appreciation. With overall volume continuing to dwindle, this described price action is a strong possibility. In that case, I will be watching the 1D red diagonal support and resistance lines. Daily OBV has breached its own resistance as well, which is an encouraging sign for market bullishness.
Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Price is being supported by the 4H pivot, showing expanding volume on the rallies and contracting volume on the reactions. This is bullish price action, but it is a 4H TF and nothing larger so I'd like to see more confirmation via continued rising OBV. Currently, I'm watching for OBV to breach the descending blue resistance line. Overnight, RSI breached its own descending black resistance line and is bullish at 61. MACD is sitting just under the signal line waiting to cross bullishly. There was the slightest hidden bullish divergence between 23:00 CST on 11/3 and 2:00 CST this morning which resulted in the current 4H candle showing price appreciation up through the equilibrium of the blue TR. Traders need to remain vigilant because price needs a nice, strong push up to avoid possible bearish divergence which is likely to be more pronounced on the MACD. This bearish divergence would play into the 1D scenario mentioned below. Spot price is showing strong resistance at $6500 on various exchanges while swap price on Bitmex is showing significant support between $6350 and $6400. This being as it is, Bitstamp is currently showing 500 BTC support at $6300 which is greater than 2x the resistance at any point up to $6800 so far. Local diagonal resistance has been noted with a descending red line on price.
The 15 minute OBV has been trending upward for the past week and has recently breached the descending blue resistance line dating back to 10/15, which is significant on this very small TF. However, it wasn't a strongly bullish break, rather it has been more of riding along the resistance/support for the past two days. If we consider that price is being contained rather than supported, as I have been suggesting based on volume and price action, then that would explain this OBV action since C.O. money is part of the smart money. So, having to sell into the rallies to keep price contained would necessarily have the effect of keeping OBV contained as well. OBV is printing a descending broadening wedge, which gives us the expectation of an increase which should result in a higher price as well. MACD just crossed bullishly and RSI is bullish at 54.5. I'd like to see RSI cleanly break 62.5 on this TF to suggest strong bullishness. Local diagonal resistance and support has been noted with red lines on price.
I will provide and discuss the 1D chart in greater detail during this morning's live stream at 10 a.m. CST as well as upside targets, but it notes that RSI breached the resistance of the triangle it has been printing since its July high and is sitting bullishly at 52.5. MACD is continuing to increase but presents the possibility of hidden bullish divergence printing some time this week, starting at 10/31. MACD is pretty short on that day, so if price drops, as long as it remains above that day's low of $6199, we could likely see a lower low in MACD and a higher low in price, suggesting continued price appreciation. With overall volume continuing to dwindle, this described price action is a strong possibility. In that case, I will be watching the 1D red diagonal support and resistance lines. Daily OBV has breached its own resistance as well, which is an encouraging sign for market bullishness.
Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.