Good morning, traders. It's Thursday and Bitcoin price continues to rise. Yesterday's breach of the descending broadening wedge and symmetrical triangle have produced a target of up to $6700. This would fill the price gap around $6670/80. Scattered above are pockets of over-leveraged, under-capitalized shorts which, when hit, will accelerate price appreciation. A push through $6900 should begin this in earnest as will a push through the $7400-$7560 area. In other words, the stage is set for a short squeeze, but there is no guarantee price will get a strong enough push to set it all in motion. While a squeeze would be great as it would allow us to push through all the resistance quick and hard, it isn't required to continue upward.
As I've spoken about quite a bit, traders should be watching the DXY. It and Bitcoin are inversely correlated. As DXY drops, Bitcoin rises, and vice versa. DXY's latest drop on August 4th coincided with Bitcoin's rise on that last leg up. DXY moved sideways from September 4th-8th which saw Bitcoin drop, and now that DXY is dropping again we see Bitcoin rising. At this point, DXY appears to be dropping out of the large, 3-month-long ascending broadening wedge. This should provide a target of $90.90 which also happens to be the equilibrium of the 1D demand zone and would give Bitcoin the opportunity to rise well, likely printing a higher high above $8500 and thereby confirming bullishness. BTCUSD longs have continued to rise as a result of Bitcoin's price appreciation recently and shorts remain stubbornly holding for now. Beware the individuals out there stating that shorts being near ATH is a non-issue as this is a failure to understand that shorting is not simply just the opposite of going long. There is significance in shorts building up as they have once again.
The 4H chart shows price pushed cleanly through resistance and, if we were to see a large pop, suggests that price could move quite easily through the cloud and into $6900. However, this would need to happen before this evening as the cloud thickens noticeably afterward. The 1D chart shows a great daily candle forming. This would be strongly bullish if we can close it at or above where price currently sits. RSI on many of the lower TFs is at/near overbought, so we may see some ranging as price readies for another move up. The 12H MACD just crossed bullishly setting up a possible same move for the daily sooner rather than later. OBV continues rising on most TFs as well, as volume drops, suggesting that retail is selling into the smart money's longs (also known as accumulation). There isn't a whole lot else to say at this time. Bias is up and into the $6600-$6700 range for now with support around $6350-$6400.
Here's my BTC analysis for Sept 13. I discuss the resistance of 6600-6700 | Descending trend line | TD + Ichi signals | ETF setup | Shorts stacked | Overall macro downtrend:
pkb6698
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I am seeking advice on my ideas below from traders in various countries. I would like to ask your advice.
And what do you think about the CBOE's ETF at the end of September and the BAKKT Exchange launching in November?
TradeClass
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Could you explain a bit more details about the 'price gap'?' Gap in what, shorts? Please explain how it is relevant so I can learn? Thanks
TradeClass
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I would like to address to your followers.. you DID forecast this outcome possibility a few days ago. Great work, TexWest :)
Thanks for sharing!
Keep up the good work, (and current chart lay out)
justDave
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Can you explain little more this sentence "as volume drops, suggesting that retail is selling into the smart money's longs (also known as accumulation)" ?. Thank you....
Here's my BTC analysis for Sept 13. I discuss the resistance of 6600-6700 | Descending trend line | TD + Ichi signals | ETF setup | Shorts stacked | Overall macro downtrend: