Bosphorus_Capital
Short

The Bear Market in BTCUSD targets 70s by 2016/2018

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1456 4 14
The BTCUSD             market has come down 65% in nine months and is in a secular bear market which is characterized by Cycle wave 4.

Cycle 3 lasted approximately 23 months.

Cycle 4 can be expected to last at least that long which would take us easily into 2016.

Cycle 4 can be expected to finish around previous wave 4 which was at 70s.

The first major bounce could be expected from 278 before end of 2014.

A spike to 173 cannot be ruled out before end of October.
JasonPalmer
2 years ago
Yes, it costs $1k+ to mine 1.0 bitcoin (total cost, given the most efficient current equipment, shipped on the earliest possible date, with below average power costs, until the unit is no longer profitable to operate, assuming the average difficulty increase of the last 6months), but btc will be $70 years from now. That makes sense. Especially since it will become less and less useful and popular in coming years. Oh and we're not approaching a die size wall either. KNC is currently shipping 20nm products, but I'm sure they'll keep getting smaller and more efficient endlessly, even though any expert will tell you anything beyond the single digit nm size is impossible. Ever-rising costs to produce + more popularity and usefulnes than ever before + approaching a wall in processor efficiency growth = lower prices than early 2013, in 2018??

The shortsightedness that some of you pure-chartists have is amazing at times. You should short and hold out till 2018. I'm sure it'll get all the way down below $100 by then. Or more likely up to $10k.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Hi There. I am not sure why you consider that wave 4 could last in time as long as wave 3, but agree with all your other comments. Have been saying as much over the period since Nov 2013 high. Many just getting there first market lesson on Bitcoin no matter how successful they might have been nor how much they think they understand, This correction in Bitcoin will be their first experience in learning that market just do not move up with very little corrections or pauses along the way. Greta chart. Thanks.
+1 Reply
Bosphorus_Capital DanV
2 years ago
Hi. Thanks for the comment!

Corrections almost always last longer than impulses. Markets are said to trend 30% of the time and correct 70% of the time. Superextended waves especially take a long long time to correct according to Glen Neely. Especially thinking how the subwaves and subsubwaves in this cycle 4 are extended, I believe 2016/2018 may be a conservative target for the end of the correction. By the time this correction finishes, the BTCUSD charts should become the least popular charts in the site.
+2 Reply
DanV MOD Bosphorus_Capital
2 years ago
Yes, could agree with that. Even the time could be longer than many has anticipated or willing to consider. Thanks for your comments
+1 Reply
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