Everyone seems to be holding on the daily for 20k. CME futures came out at 20k. RSI looks ready for a bullish run to 20k. Ascending wedge converges past 20k as per your projections at (5). Support lines reached at 17300 maybe? 4h MACD seems primed for a short correction until a bull run to 20k.
I agree with most of your analysis in that once the 5th wave completes we will see a correction but i think the trend line should be adjusted due to the added market cap available now compared to late NOV. Also possible that support is found at the 20k as it is a beautiful round number and a fib level everyone is targeting. we all know how investors like big round numbers!
In summary i think this 5th wave will reach over 20k, we will grab a correction and fall to either the new 20k support line or if we dont grab support, it will fall back to the 18500 or 17300 support lines.
The correction line (red ABC) in fact, is based on the worse case scenario, in which the correction may end at the bottom of wave 4. But, as you said, it could end at a much higher price, around 17200 (wave 3 top) for example. That would still be a correction of about 20%, which sounds reasonable according to the market cap.
On the other side, a huge market cap, and therefore the huge volumes on the leveraged exchanges could drastically increse the size of the short positions in such a scenario.
About the top of wave 5, I don't think it will go as high as 25k, even though that was my first thought on my last publication on btc. This is for another reason : if we look at the trend and waves of ETHBTC, it really seems to me that we may be at the end of a huge correction on the weekly and daily chart, which would mean an ethereum rallye, or a btc dip, or a mix of both those situations.
I agree with most of your analysis in that once the 5th wave completes we will see a correction but i think the trend line should be adjusted due to the added market cap available now compared to late NOV. Also possible that support is found at the 20k as it is a beautiful round number and a fib level everyone is targeting. we all know how investors like big round numbers!
In summary i think this 5th wave will reach over 20k, we will grab a correction and fall to either the new 20k support line or if we dont grab support, it will fall back to the 18500 or 17300 support lines.