Analysis of the Bitcoin's Macro SuperCycle reveals familiar fractal patterns and our current position in the grand scheme of things. BTW, here's how some analysts come up with those crazy unrealistic price targets.
1. Note some fib relationships in SuperCycle Wave (1), apparently: wave 3 (circle) = 50.618 (!) of wave 1 (circle) (green fibos); wave (5) = 20.618 (!) of (wave (1) + wave (3)) (blue fibos) (coincides with the target for wave 3 circle) wave 5 (circle) = 4.618 of (wave 1 (circle) + wave 3 (circle)) - you can estimate wave 5 based on wave 1 + wave 3 total length (violet fibos) wave (3) is 2.618 of wave 1 (circle) Project fibos from the end of wave (2) (or the abs bottom of correction), wave (4) and wave (4 circle) to confirms the targets for wave (5) and wave 3 (circle).
2. Establish some fractal relationships between cycles. There are lots of similarities in the current market and in the previous market cycle. SuperCycle Wave (1) is a cyclical recursive fractal pattern that will reproduce itself within our current cycle of higher degree. i.e. wave 1 (circle) => becomes a SuperCycle Wave (1) wave 2 (circle) => SuperCycle Wave (2) wave 3 (circle) => SuperCycle Wave (3) etc. also, all corresponding subwaves within SuperCycle waves will repeat the same fractal pattern: wave 3 (circle) => SuperCycle subwave 3 (circle) etc so that all fib relationships between subwaves in the new fractal will be preserved.
3. Measure and project the length of SuperCycle Wave (1) from the end of SuperCycle Wave (2) (or the abs bottom of SuperCycle correction) using 50.618 level to get the 60100-61800 target for SuperCycle Wave (3) Projecting from the end of subwave (4) of SuperCycle Wave (3) also works.
4. In SuperCycle Wave (3) also measure and project the lengths of its subwave 1 (circle) and subwave (1) + subwave (3). Project subwave 1 (circle) length (measured from the abs bottom of SuperCycle corection) from the end of subwave 2 (circle) using 50.618 level to get the 18300-19120 targets for subwave (5) and subwave 3 (circle). Projecting from the end of subwave (4) also works. Project subwave (1) + subwave (3) length from the end of subwave (4) using 4.618 level to get the target for subwave (5) and 20.618 level to get the target for Wave 5 (circle) Note that subwave (3) is still 2.618 of subwave 1 (circle)
5. Having established the target for SuperCycle Wave (3), we can measure Wave (1) + Wave (3) and project from the end of SuperCycle Wave (4) using 4.618 level to get the 90200-92000 target for Wave (5).
6. Note that all corrections (red fibos) are between 0.786 and 0.886
Based on this analysis, we can conclude: - we are now in SuperCycle Wave (3), subwave 4 (circle) and should correct more to 0.786 - 0.886 to fit the fractal pattern, ideally to the bottom of the new green channel - after correction we will go up in subwave (5) of Wave (3) to 60100-61800 - we can reach the abs max of 90200-92000 in SuperCycle Wave (5) that will follow much much later - we will remain in SuperCycle up trend until breaching 1170 level (end of SuperCycle Wave (1)) - the relationship between corrections subwave 4 (circle) and subwave 2 (circle) are similar to their corresponding waves in the source fractal pattern ignoring the retracements one could say that it's time to go up.
Note that the new green channel has a lower angle now, so, expect much lower targets
@RagingRocketBull also you could use BLX. It has data before 2012. It seems to me the wave (1) of late november 2013 might not be correct. Wave (1) can very well end on early Jan 2011 per BLX. I am curious how you will recount the waves.
RagingRocketBull
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@TheCryp, thank you, yes I know, but I wasn't aware of BLX at that time. I agree, an update is needed
BLX history comparison with other exchanges:
Oracle618
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@RagingRocketBull, thanks. This is also my understanding based on BLX. I am still not truly sure if availability of data to humans and machines can actually affect TA, most of the people in the field prefer to believe that TA results are independent of the sentiments which can shift based on presented data. I tend to disagree. An evidence to my thinking is the recent weekly death cross for Eth on Poloniex which did not have any adverse effect on Eth since most people do not trade on Poloniex. If so, there is still hope that we get to higher prices before the super cycle correct. I appreciate having your thoughts also. Great work.
WaveRider1423
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Nice Chart, thanks for sharing.
RagingRocketBull
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@tuamen, I agree with the general idea, but we can't form a triangle because then we will have to go down the whole length of its pole which is roughly 20000-6000 = 14000, and its target is on the negative side of Y axis. But we can have a trading range and a smaller triangle, or we can correct a bit, go up with the trend to ~12500 and go down from there for instance.
bilalabes
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Do you think btc already bottomed ? I do understand that this is a long term (well... 1 year) ... thanks for sharing your ideas
RagingRocketBull
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@bilalabes, No, I don't. Trends with such a deep and dull bottom like our current one are artificial and don't last for long. We should have that last leg of correction curving upwards while going down similar to the previous ones. From there we will resume the up trend with a strong sharp/curving wave up.