At the moment we are around our very strong resistance which consists: 1. Round number $6500 2. March low $6533 3. April low $6425 4. ...and now is there also a minor trendline since 7. aug.
To confirm a breakout from this area we need at least a 4h candle close above the $6533 which is March low. Why 4h, because we have tried almost a week to break that level down but those attempts were unsuccessful. Yes, we got 1h candle closes above the mentioned area but those were just fakeouts so, that's why we need at least the 4h candle close above this level to confirm the breakout!
Breakout 'supported' with nice chart patterns and EMA's: 1. We have a CYPHER pattern which indicates that the 1.st target would be around $6900 2. We have a "Double bottom" on the trendline since 15.09.2017 with two touches 3. In the 1h chart, we break above the 200EMA 4. We have seen very nice and bullish candlestick patterns on the higher level and the higher timeframes
So, we have a pretty nice overview about this area, those monthly lows are pretty significant to watch! But why the title is "shows some signs..." not "shows some strenght..."...because the volume is pretty low! If we don't find that power to push the price through those level then I watch the bearish pa. around the $6200 because there are some important levels to watch!
Hopefully, this helps You out a little bit to confirm Your own analysis! DEFINITELY make Your own research and if You don't understand some of my points or I miss calculate something then please leave a comment! To get updates - click the FOLLOW button and please, don't forget to LIKE! Thank You for your support
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Be ready, we have 65 min. to close the 4h candle above the $6500! We don't have been so close after 10th aug.! But keep in mind there is also $6533 March low! ..and please hit the LIKE button! Thank You!
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4h candle close $6498 :) So, no close above the $6500 and above the $6533! But this could happen because we are starting to gain some volume finally! Interesting-interesting....
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Here are the drawn trendline on the line chart and for some time we traded above the trendline and between the strong resistance.
At the moment the price wants to go back below the trendline but let's see what we got - we had a nice 4h candle close and we need a small pullback to push it through! If this pullback goes too deep then the momentum is gone!
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We have a bearish Engulfing on the 1h chart! Bounce was from $6550 and closed below the main levels and the volume is also a pretty big! The only things that hold us are EMA200 and the April low $6425.
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Just be on alert, EVERYTHING could happen at this price level!!
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On the hourly chart - another failed attempt to break the $6500-$6533! If the break happens then definitely this candle is massive! No way that we just smoothly drive through this resistance zone! ...but at the moment looks like the pressure is still down! Now here is the question: do the buyers find the power and press it through after those many failed attempts or they are out of steam!
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They keep trying, they keep trying to break that resistance but failure after failure! But to me, this looks like they succeed soon and we break above those levels, this consistency is just amazing :)
the bear volume is very noticeable... i believe we need to see a 4 hour close above 6550 to gain momentum?
VaidoVeek
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@premmest, yes, definitely we need a close above the March low to confirm some momentum!
Because all those attempts are failed, so, when they can close above Buyers are won this battle ;)
premmest
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@VaidoVeek, yeah, i think btc is heading for new lows... it just cannot get past 6550-6600
big_foot
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Similar situation as 12.4.... probably we will have a short squeeze pretty soon.
Looking daily chart I see situation like this (without some whale games)
Bullish perspective:
BTC/USD shorts are near so high as 12.4.
RSI is approx on same oversold level,
volume before short squeeze is approx. same.
Also here we have a little bit truncated 3 down waves as aprils,
MACD is slowly ticking up near crossing.
A lot of rejected attempts crossing and closing 6500 didnt shoot as down a lot (usualy second failed attempt mean we are going down)
On possible brake out I see target at 6800 maybe even touch of 7000 but not more. Reason is if we will go over 7k which is strong resistance we will also break downtrend line
(OK we did it last time but there we have FOMO in play)
Bearish perspective:
RSI again... we are at same point where we can again drop hard - but BTC/USD shorts makes me doubt that.
On long term downtrend bottom line we didnt touch bottom line, but we are howering in middle... I miss drop to 5400-5600 usd.
However dinamic of that drop could confirm we were at bottom, becose approx what we did "overshoot" on downtrendline 24.7. is approx. same amount what we "overshoot" now from 5900-ish to 5500-ish
I found that EW and Fibo theory are useless this time. :-)
AngeloBurforetti
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@big_foot, so are you thinking now we are not going down to 54 - 5600 after this short rise?
big_foot
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@AngeloBurforetti, We are going gown no question about it, but now we have also strong option for mini blastoff but only inside downtrend channel or near of that channel.
I dont expect some shoot up to 10k or something without some fundamental good news that would heat up FOMO (well can happen if big money decide so - but that is just wild luck or unluck depende on which side you are at moment).
AngeloBurforetti
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@big_foot, Thanks for your reply, ill keep in btc till around 6700 ish. Then jump into usdt. And sit.
Cheers.
AngeloBurforetti
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@big_foot, Wow, that was hard bailing out into usdt, I went a bit early, 6550.
Worked a treat, thanks again.
big_foot
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@AngeloBurforetti, see u have been too fast to get out. I was telling 6800-7000 will play out (got out with 75% at near peak at 6900 and was shit loaded with btc bought under 6k). After that it is all about 23.8. desidion where we will go.
But I strongly think we will finaly go down even lower now... even 5k can be in play.
So ladder buy under 5800 and new entry tomorrow if we will see outbreak. Which I dont think will happen.