DrDovetail

Why I think BTC will get HIGH on 4/20

Long
DrDovetail Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
So many reasons to be bullish right now. First and foremost, is the current bull flag we have been forming on the 1day chart. 2nd is that the projected trajectory of the eve trendline's ascending curve(in pink) continues to be validated. Third, we still haven't reached the projected breakout target of the descending triangle we broke out of(in purple) and we also haven't yet veered away from that target but are still well on the path and direction of the uptrend to reach that price target. In order to reach that target we must break upward bullishly from the current bull flag. 4th not shown here are the 4hr charts T-line and 50MA both are up inside the current bull flag and both are currently acting as support and just below them we have the eve trend support line and the bottome trendline of the bull flag so lots of support to keep it from breaking down. The one thing the bulls currently ave in their favor is the 1 day 50MA(in orange) is currently blocking the bullish exit on the bull flag. However I think by tomorrow the support lines will all converge closely enough together to create so much support that they will be able to squeeze btc above the 1day 50MA, and shoot it upwards where it's next big challenge will be the 1 day 200MA and just above that the 10,000 psychological resistance. I may take small amounts of profit if we see the 200ma or the 10,000 psych resistance swat the price back down..but if I do it will only be a fractional amount since being above the 4hr 50ma tis long has put us in a buyers market where its wiser to buy dips than try to accumulate more through shorting. If the bullish breakout allows us to close 5 consecutive 1 day candles aboe the 1 day buy/sell line(50MA) then we will be in a serious buyers market and I will likely not do too much shorting while we are above it but rather only buy dips....The last big thing to mention is that we are in a massive descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. If we break upward from the current bullflag by 4/20 that will give us 2 days before the weekly candle closes which will likely close it above the weekly descending triangle which could send us all the way up to 18,000 eventually. I think if we see a bullish break upward from the 1 day bull flag(which probability favors) it will greatly increase the probability of a break above the weekly descending triangle..and create a bullish domino effect which could give us a bull run for the entire 2nd quarter potentially and even a chance at a new all time high. Of course these are simply my hypothesizations and not meant to be taken as financial advice. I prescribe that you make your own decisions this is simply the path I will be most likely expecting to unfold. Thanks for reading!
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One last thing, the 4hr or 1hr price action could potentially hit the top bullflag trendline today and get bounced all the way down to the bottom bull flag trendline...if that happens I see that as simply an optimal spot(bottom bullflag trendline) at which to buy the dip...I think if it doea go down there it will bounce back up and that will likely be the last time it goes down there, if the eve trendlines current trajectory continues to hold true.
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just realize one of my pink curve lines on the Eve trendline got unintentionally moved slightly from my original trajectory so we may have a little bit more breathing room in between the price action and where it would run into the eve trendline than it is currently showing on this chart. I've readjusted the trajectory to make it slightly more symmetrical like I had it before and we could essentially still go sideways inside the current flag until the 22nd. However, the 20th seems liek a very appropriate day or us to launch up out of this bull flag.
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One thing I left out of this analysis is the recent golden cross on the 4hr chart. I had mentioned it in previous analysis but I forgot to include it in one of the many reasons we will see a continuation of the uptrend.
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Lastly, just as a saftey net precaution....I always advise that people side with probability but at the same time be prepared for the exact opposite outcome...in this case the opposite outcome would involve the head and shoulders pattern that previously faked us out but is still yet to be invalidated being triggered by a sudden whale dump. Very unlikely but sometimes the least likely outcome is the one that actually occurs taking everyone by surprise. So you always wanna be prepared for it. For us to invalidate the head and shoulders we simply need to rise above the 8500 range. until we do it will still be in play even though its extremely unlikely at this point to be triggered.
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woke up to a nice high green 4hr candle above the bullflag all the way at 8500 quite a satisfying feeling...here are my 2 idea updates for the day:
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