As you can see by looking at the 4-hour the top of the channels is around $506.45, so you may not want to get too excited by the recent price movement unless you are just looking to scalp a few dollars here or there and intend to get in and right back out. In addition, 50-day is below 100-day which is . Until price makes a run at 50-day (and probably 100-day) I'm not looking to buy.
I tend to look at longer term time frames - the 1-day, weekly - and indicators, cycles, patterns, and Point and Figure charts. I'm not as concerned with the $50-$70 swings as my approach is looking more at medium-to-long-term price and momentum rather depending on timing to jump in and out.
On the chart below price is closer to the downward sloping Andrews' Pitchfork, so to me it currently looks more probable that price either re-enters the pitchfork which would be very bearish, or it follows the upper parallel on its downward slope which would be bearish.
On the chart below, price broke through the bottom of the large green triangle which was drawn based on the $339.79 low. Unless price either re-enters that triangle, or at least begins to hug the bottom of it, I would expect price to continue down or, at a minimum sideways, until something changes.
They are causing the majority of this see-saw as they are taking profits. The meatspace trades are amplifying their movements past what we should see with bots staying on technicals. So, movement gets nearly random at test points. As the humans, don't know what to do.
As you said, when you look at the 1m, you can see the bot operations, as a fuzzy fib moving up and down.
Here is a chart that shows a bot doing the same thing, but without meatspace interference, so it's a cleaner pattern.
From a cycle point of view the longer term cycles determine the long-term price trend and the shorter cycles determine the short-term trend. There is software where you can determine the individual cycles as sine waves and plot the future price.
You can also get similar - although not as precise results - just by reading the chart and counting a bottom to top of whatever your favorite indicator is. You can also look at price, of course, and roughly guesstimate upper and lower bounds of where price will go.
Unless you are a short-term trader, the short time frames will only tell you a little about where the price goes in the medium-to-long-term because the longer cycles are dominant. Yes, the longer cycles consist of shorter ones, and the short cycles can tip you off to movements in price. However, when you look at an indicator for a very short time frame that indicator will cycle up and down very quickly and will only tell you a little about where the price will be in an hour, 4 hours, a day, a week, a month, etc. To get an idea where the longer term price is going, you have to look at the long-term cycles and indicators.