If I'm wrong, god help us. If I'm right, you should still do your own TA and not trade with this as advice.
I will update with details on the theory and reasoning once I have it refined.
The first thing we should look at is momentum.
This is Bill William's Awesome Oscillator otherwise known as AO. It works on a similar concept as the MACD histogram except that it uses 34, 8 MA's and plots the difference between them with the 0 line representing price. AO above 0 is bullish, below is bearish, green means rising, red means falling.
Check out the CRAZY divergence that has been happening over the past 4 months. You can see that we are now very close to 0 which means the trend is running out of steam. If you don't use AO, i'm sure you can find this divergence/convergence on many different indicators including MACD.
I've observed this pattern across many cryptos. NEO, LTC, ETH are some examples.
But because that labeling violates some basic Elliott wave rules, this following would be the proper and complete labeling. In the end it doesn't matter too much as long as we can find a complete pattern.
Yes, fractals. They are an awesome guide for the type of pattern we can expect but not so great for predicting magnitude and timing.
Here is the fractal from 20k to 6k scaled down in size to match the C leg of the correction. Looks to me that the fractal is complete, no?
Here we have two pitchforks with median lines intersecting at the same point...
Hence I believe we are in a LESSER degree correction than what you saw in 2014. This current correction is more like the one in 2013.
BTW, all credit to @ronfkingswanson for introducing me to the .705 retracement. My curiosity got me wondering why this ratio pops up all over crypto. After some messing around with a calculator it turns out that .707 is the square root of 50%. Fascinating right? I have no idea why it shows up everywhere but I'm assuming it has something to do with the exponential ^2 growth of crypto. I guess it makes sense that if something goes up exponentially it must correct exponentially as well.