1. Smart money action:
The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space as Grayscale raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). The $900M won’t be available for exiting until at least October 1st this year. And small likelihood that this group will exit at all. (Thanks to NxjaUNHaCucnyxaB’s insightful comment last week.)
2. Miner action:
Both hash rate and difficulty have recovered , and miner capitulation has ended. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a long-term sign.
3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment is now neutral to overly . For the seller group sentiment, this group remains in a bull trend, but the current price has already slightly dropped below the actively trading group’s purchase price. This means a decrease in willingness to sell, leading to a decrease in supply, which will ultimately increase price. Assuming bull market, we are in the golden accumulation zone. (Note: The R:R for betting trend changes simply doesn’t appeal to me. Yes, you can bet it every time and never miss a large movement, but you also need to deal with the 30-40% win rate and high operational/execution risks.)
4. Margin & Market Actions:
A ridiculous amount of longs were present at the 11.5k level, and a "likely long squeeze alert" appeared before the drop to 10k. Currently, the margin market is overly , but not enough people is on board with the “bearishness” so we do need the open interest to pick up a bit to fuel an ideal short squeeze. As for the institutional traders’ positions, last week’s drop doesn’t impact this group turning after 3 months of indecisiveness. The position is for , and thus acts as a leading indicator rather than a coincident indicator. Check out the March resemblance.
5. Global Market Impacts:
To ease the COVID impacts, the Fed is using all means to boost the economy, which means a continued rise in . This will fundamentally push up the value of gold , bringing up bitcoin along the way as the main value proposition of bitcoin remains store of value rather than remittance.
90% of historical BTC gaps get filled sooner or later (generally created by weekend BTC movements when the CME’s closed). Yes, we still have a $300 gap open on 7/25 from 9.6k to 9.9k. However, after such a long time, the gap filling (big if here) will be more of a result of general market movements rather than the cause.
1. Resistance at 11.3k. Support at 9.8-9.9k (If we drop below this level, trend will likely turn ).
2. wave: likely in wave (ii) of III. Wave (ii) currently counted as a and is potentially finished.
3. neutral to bearish:
Failing the MAs and in a . However, for the short-term, an upward attempt at the MAs is needed. Meaning I'm leaning for the week ahead.
In . No sign of up-cross yet.
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
Agree that there is more likelihood for BTC to break through 10.5k than to drop below 9.8k.
Any thoughts on the CME gap at 9.6k?