With all the doomsday pundits on the news, the big wigs of finance, and mainstream financial media callilng for the end of Bitcoin, you might think it was the end of the world!
Remember folks, we hit ALL TIME HIGHS of 5000 a few weeks ago. ALL TIME HIGHS are not a sign of a downtrend, or a sign of a bear market. All time highs are a sign of an uptrend! Sure, there is always a tiny chance that this was the top, but if these analysts and whales of Wall Street were so smart, then how come they couldn't predict the rise of Bitcoin in the first place?
My point? They know as much as the next guy. They probably haven't even opened crypto currency accounts and don't know how it works. That said, you KNOW they are investing in crypto or blockchain firms behind the scenes, and probably taking advantage of lower prices to accumulate some Bitcoin.
TRADE LIKE THE PROFESSIONALS Bitcoin is acting weak, and now is the time to accumulate more of a position if you believe in the overall thesis that cryptos are going to increase in price. It might not be the bottom, but if your thesis is positive, then it is a discount.
THE TECHNICALS DON'T LIE Well let's get down to brass tax. We can speculate about the story, but what really matters is price and the technicals.
I have pointed out some crashes and declines in Bitcoin from 2014 - present. There have been more than a few!
We can see how the present fall compares historically: somewhere in the middle. Crashes range from 20% to 70% until a significant bounce. Every time, price bounced back, but sometimes it took longer than others.
IF YOU BELIEVE IN PATTERNS If you believe that patterns repeat, until they don't, then go back to the well. It's a nice time to add to your position. However, the price could always go lower. A 70% drop would see us back to 1500. But even then, it would only mirror the crash in 2013/2014, which needed a few years to recover, but then we saw a huge run of +2000% to 5000.
WINTER IS COMING? Maybe a new Bitcoin winter is coming, or maybe we get a huge bounce here and climb right back up to 5000. Just like the talking heads, no one really knows. But buying at lower prices, and lower prices, with money that you can afford to lose (bankroll management!) means you can survive the autumn or winter and reap the profits come spring.
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!! PM me with any trading questions !!
MY TRADING METHOD: I keep my analysis simple. Good analysis always is. I use Price Patterns, Moving Averages, and RSI for my analysis. I use the 1 day for trend analysis and 60 minute for trade entry For my Targets I use Fibonacci projections, measured moves, support and resistance. Successful trading means proper risk sizing and trading small so you can stay in the game.
Totally agreed.
You haven't posted on Youtube for a while.
BerlinTrader591
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@hamidious, Glad to see you're watching! Haha I was hiking in Iceland so I had no internet for a while. Gonna start back up today.
hubert333
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Thank you for the great post.
My question related to this post is how to minimize the risk of such future falls of the price?
Should I have some stop limits, stop losses set at different level of the price? Should I always keep portion of my funds in fiat or USDT (like on poloniex)?
What are the strategies to manege these kinds of events, to minimize losses.
I am just starting with trading and willl apriciate your thought on this.
JamesAndrews
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@hubert333, If you are not day trading the answer is to simply hold. If your strategy is to buy & hold then look for the dips & accumulate. If you don't want to watch the dips simply dollar cost average into the market & accumulate that way. The percentage increase in BTC alone this year is phenominal even with the current drop. If you are actively trading there are multiple options. USDT is a viable option that will allow you to dollar cost average back into the market on the way down.
hubert333
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@JamesAndrews, thank you for your reply. It does give me some ideas :)
BerlinTrader591
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@hubert333, Have some in BTC, some in USDT and also some real hard currency in your bank account. Don't throw all your eggs in one basket. Of course you can hold until the cows come home, but I would really reccomend trading actively. You lose a lot of opportunity cost when you just hold through long down periods. Stops are totally fine, but you need to make sure that your targets are 4:1 or higher for example. Make a play and stick to your rules. Whatever your rules are, stick to them. Watch my videos and read my posts to learn how I trade and maybe you can apply some rules to your trading!