Bitcoin - Low Volatility and Consolidation

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello fellow crypto enthusiasts! I wish I could tell you exactly what BTC is going to do in the days and weeks to come but sadly I can't. One thing that is apparent is how much the volatility has dropped. Since setting a low of $6119.50 (Bitfinex price) BTC has been in a slight uptrend. Zooming out to a long term view, compared to the wild swings we were seeing in the past BTC looks to almost looks to have flat lined.

I can't say for sure that BTC has bottomed although it does feel like it has to me. I will go out on a limb here and say that I believe BTC is now in a consolidation phase and has been since it set the low on June 24th.

As I said I am not sure what BTC will do from here but my feeling is that we could stay in the consolidation phase for a while yet, trading in a range from around $6000 up to 7500 or even $8000. Looking at the daily chart right now there are a couple things that I like. I like how the lower trend line is still being respected (at least so far) and I like how the 100 SMA has started to curve upward slightly toward the 200 SMA that is still trending downward. The spread between them is the closest since they crossed back on April 15th. As long as the bottom does not fall out, they should continue to creep closer to each other. At that point a nice sustained push higher by BTC could potentially get the 100 SMA back above the 200 SMA which would be very bullish . In my opinion besides BTC breaking out above the long-term downtrend trend line , getting back above and staying above the daily 200 SMA is a critical milestone that BTC has to accomplish before the next bull market can begin. I feel like the days and weeks ahead are going to be a very critical time for BTC and although I feel pretty confident that BTC has bottomed I also realize that anything is possible and as such BTC could still at some point take out the 2018 low and head much lower.


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