GramTooNoob
Short

Last Peak before New Year Crash

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC             shred through a 750 sell wall in an amazing last min bull run to prevent a correction but this should be the last peak of wave 4 within a big C wave down. Indicators are starting to show signs of going down from here, just a matter of bulls and bears fighting it out. Once the buy volume drop, BTC             is going down for its correction all the way to 10k, 8.5k or 6.5k. I have 3 targets because of various calculations and taking certain fundamentals into account, also because I don't believe wave 5 down would be so extended unless panic sales ensue.

Good luck and stay safe! Confirmation for short would likely be 13k             if it breaks through, but a short at 14k             should provide some really nice cushion on the way down. A reversal would requires bull to break above 14500.

Tip Jar for New Year Fortune Cookies
BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2

PS: The 750 sell wall is likely someone trying to fill his leverage wall at a good price, poor bulls that bought the top. Mind games.
Comment: Pretty oversold on the 30 mins timeframe and Stoch RSI is starting to show slight negative divergence. 5 mins and 15 mins has some interesting bull signals but money flow is going downwards since the 14k break.

MACD is looking pretty positive with room to rise above but it is still going downwards on the daily, yet to cross under with no signs of uptick and already bending down on the 5 mins. Given the bearish market sentiment, I would likely read the indicators as room to go down instead of room to go up.

We will likely stall here for awhile as bulls and bears fights for the ball, trying not to get caught in a trap. A break below 13500 should start the ball rolling.
Comment: Pretty bullish on the 5 mins but not bullish enough to change the overall trend (downtrend). A sell wall at 13900 did not convince buyers to buy in, seem buyers seems pretty careful here not to buy the top. We are still likely to go lower as this continues, leading to exhaustion.
Comment: The consolidation triangle has fallen out of support, bears will now try to push it down with their best effort, forcing longs to close.

Comment: The consolidation triangle transformed into a falling wedge but the wave counts doesn't fit, so its a false pattern. The overall trend remains bearish, and it is just banging the ceiling until exhaustion when the 5 mins MACD crosses under.
Comment: Looks like this went pretty well. Grats to those who took the short at 14k, see you at the bottom and don't forget to tip afterwards =)
Happy Trading new Year!
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GramTooNoob grahamcruickshanks
@grahamcruickshanks, thank you. Happy trading in 2018 to you =)
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