So, i have something to share with you. This is just my vision. JUST MY FANTASY. Let's speak about it now. ***WARNING*** YOU WILL BECOME A MOON BOY/GIRL, SO REMEMBER THAT IT IS ONLY 20% CHANCE.
I used fractal analysis (took a fractal from covid dump and V shape recovery that happened in 2020), to predict what can possibly happen. During Covid dump It was absolutely the same - unpredicted conditions on the markets and bad macro economic factors in general. During 2022 dip in Crypto people has been expecting the CRASH OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM, but in general we received 9.5% CPI rates and this is it. Same was with Covid dump. People has been expecting apocalypses, but economy recovered in 6 months and a lot of people who bought crypto during these dip became a millionaires just in one year (imagine ETH for $80).
According to this theory, i think, that even stock2flow model can be still correct. Just timeframes have been changed. So lets speak about the cycle. I think, if we will see this option playing out, than overall bullish trend of 2021 was just a pre-bullrun. Real bullrun in this case should happen in 2023 when BTC will hit 300K+ price target. THE FOMO WILL BE ABSOLUTELY UNBEARABLE. And this will be the end of this cycle and we will see another bear market (apx. since september 2023 till september 2024) with an absolute bottom for 1BTC at 70k-80k.
And just enjoy how this fractal perfectly matches everything. So according to this model - we will see 60K+ for 1 BTC at the end of this year. And 300K+ for 1 BTC in the next 12 months. Crazy? yes. Possible? Yes. Will it happen? I would say yes with a 20% chance 😁
The big fake out, everyone calling end of the cycle, looking for "bottom". What if we are still in the run and still going to 6 figures and no one was getting a free ride and everyone must feel the pain. Id love for it to be true but it does seem unrealistic at this point, we wait for 2024 halving and then, we go to 6 figures, not before.