BTCUSD
This is the Bitcoin Bearish Scenario that I’m seeing here, it is not the only possible Elliott Wave Count here, there is also the Bullish Scenario, and right now I would say it is 50%-50% between the probabilities of Bitcoin already had bottom or one last leg lower.
If Bitcoin has already bottom, it would be important for it to stay above the channel for a week or so, or for it to go to $10,000 USD, either case would confirm the bullish case. But, if it drops back into the channel, it could be considered just a false break of the channel. Note to say that yesterday was the first time in 6 months that Bitcoin close above the channel on a daily candle, but a weekly close above it would be needed to confirm the bottom at around $6,400 USD. It is not a done deal, that is why I say it is 50%-50%.
Also today it is forming a Hanging Man Reversal Pattern, www.freeonlinetradin...com/hanging-man.html , which needs further down action to confirm a reversal.
We are in a 50%-50% probability between Bulls and Bears, meaning, I’m not making any recommendation here.
In this Elliott Wave Count a complex Triple Three Combination Pattern, www.fxstreet.com/edu...ections-201908132016 , started at the end of June, and so far we made Waves W,X,Y,X and we are at the middle of Wave Z. Each of this waves subdivides into 3 waves, A,B,C, and so far, it looks like we already completed wave A and B of Z, and are just staring to make Wave C of Z, the last subwave, which should subdivide into 5 small waves.
The price target of this last wave is the bottom of the channel, at about $5,700 USD. Which, if this count is correct, should be reach soon, maybe by the end of this month or the middle of next month.
The RSI is above the 70 level on the daily time frame, which means we are overbought. We’ll see what happens.
Good Luck to You
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What I don’t like about this scenario is that Wave B of Z does not reach near the top of the Channel, as it did all the other times in Wave B of W, and Wave B of Y.
Here is the chart: