During the last bull market most of the local tops were situated 45% above the 50EMA on the weekly chart. Growth above this percentage were a good indicator of unhealthy growth. Actually we are 10% lower than this threshold of 45%. The top after the break above the EMA50 during the transition from bear to bull market was also 45% above the 50EMA.
Retracement after the top was often relevant and rapid. Two time on Bitstamp the weekly wick terminated exactly on the 50 EMA.
If we keep it simple. Sell Bitcoin above the EMA50 on the weekly chart is never a bad choise as there are good possibility for a return to the mean. As the EMA progression has a quite flat trajectory, there is in a short term prospective more to lose than to gain holding bitcoin from now.
Now we look at other facts.
On a 3 daily prospective we are in overbought conditions. After a top the RSI retraced in bull market condition until a value around 50%. A support around 50% RSI would be strongly bullish for the long term prospective.
Same on the weekly . RSI is overbought, but still not at maximal levels of bull market (but higher than the first top after transiction from bear to bull market)
Why I believe that the top is still not reached.
On lower time frame we are on an ascending triangle
Target would be around 9.7k-10k. In my opinion if it happens, it will be with a low volume spike. So watch out for rapid retracements after break out and set good stop loss.
The famous 45% is also around 10K.
I often look also at harmonic pattern on the RSI. It is sometime helpful to spot selling or buying pattern, that in the price movement are hidden.
We have potential a whole arm of a bearish pattern to complete.
On the monthly chart there is a big blind spot around 9.2k and 10k that could offer good resistance.
I like your TA - can you post more frequently?
More specifically with targets/calls on the local tops/bottoms we expect to see in the bull run as we move forward
FerdiHodler
⋅
@kaiserjacob, Thank you for your comment. In the last month BTC ate one target after the other and it is difficult to say yet where it will find a stop. My maximal target in february was 5.2k. Now we are at 8k. As you can see from my past post I share my thought only when something relevant is about to happens and I try to avoid to be misleading with overposting.
More specifically with targets/calls on the local tops/bottoms we expect to see in the bull run as we move forward