Bitcoin has officially entered the 2-day Gaussian Channel, a technical event that has historically coincided with prolonged sideways price action. Looking left, past instances suggest this phase can last several months, often frustrating both bulls and bears before a clear trend emerges.
Key Observations
Potential Scenarios
Conclusion
The entry into the 2-day Gaussian channel signals a likely multi month sideways market for Bitcoin. Patience will be key, traders should prepare for a rangebound environment while positioning for the eventual breakout.
Ww
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Key Observations
Price is currently trading inside the 2D Gaussian channel. Historically, this has led to ranging/sideways price behaviour rather than immediate trend continuation.
The sideways trading range can take up to 90 (red circles), meaning the end of November before a meaningful direction change in price action.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish Case – Price action has not yet confirmed the sideways trading period. A 2 day candle must close on or above $114k by August 31st.
Bearish Case – failure to close above $114k by August 31st would confirm the sideways trading period. Furthermore it would confirm the end of the Bitcoin bull market, the technical cycle ends now in 30 days.
The end of the bull market?!
Unless you think this time is different, every cycle prior has ended in 526 days or less post halving, leaving the market with 30 days until the technical top. That's why whales have been gladly using retail exit liquidity those past few weeks. They have a plan, retail has influencers.
Conclusion
The entry into the 2-day Gaussian channel signals a likely multi month sideways market for Bitcoin. Patience will be key, traders should prepare for a rangebound environment while positioning for the eventual breakout.
Ww
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational purposes only. Do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Note
Bitcoin Bulls are going to need liquid hopium to prevent this monthly candle print in 48hrsThe last time we saw a candle like that was the 2019 market top, price action crashed 70% from $10k to $3.3k at the time.
Trade active
Price action has now closed inside the 2 day Gaussian channel. If history is our teacher we should give this signal our full attention.
A 2 day signal is an indication of a lengthy sideways trading period, 2 months minimum.
Historically speaking the month of September is awful for Bitcoin price action. Indeed look left at previous years and you’ll notice the month of August closed with a bearish reversal candle. Whoever was selling with volume at $125k was the 5%, devoid of influencer influence and social media nonsense.
Since December 2023 the market has returned 600% with now approximately 40 days remaining of this Bitcoin bull market, technically speaking.
If we look left at the 2 day Gaussian channel entry as the market cycle is so close to completion we see:
May 2021
August 2019
January 2018
Do you think this time is different?
Ww
Note
note: if 107k cannot hold support, 101k is next. If 101k is tested with a weekly candle close then that means broken market structure and very likely the end of the Bitcoin bull market.Note
Did you notice price action rejecting the upper side of the 2 day Gaussian channel after it entered the channel?February 20th, that was the last time this happened before a 25% correction. $85k would be the next support should that 25% correction repeat, which would also signal $125k was indeed the market cycle top.
Is this the alt token season influencers are talking about?
Note
Crypto-Treasure below ask's "The main question: is 114k a real resistance or just a liquidity trap?"99% certain a liquidity trap.
This is highly unlikely to be an extended sideways trading range as previously shown. Retail traders are liquidating themselves hand over fist, jumping in and out of trades providing market liquidity.
Just be patient.
Note
If you're wondering why price action is so lacklustre, look left. There is a battle between bears and bulls for 116.5k.It has taken far less time for price action to move outside Gaussian Channel on the 2 day, but it has not yet confirmed an exit. The days ahead should enlighten.
Note
The bulls have 2 days from today to prevent confirmation of this 2 day bearish engulfing candle. Look left.Previously this has meant a sudden violent drop in price action of up to 25%, which curiously enough is the Fibonacci 0.382
Confirmation would forecast a correction to $86k. A candle body close at these levels is a confirmation of the end of the Bitcoin bull market, which is in keeping with the 4 year market cycle window.
Micro strategy liquidation point has now increased to $74k.
2 day
Note
Price thoroughly confirms resistance on the ceiling. Now if the bull cannot undo this quickly, there's a strong change price action returns to 102k area. This is a problem for bulls in general as it would be a break of the 105.5k market structure. That would be a strong signal to the end of the Bitcoin bull market.Trade closed: target reached
The target area forecast back in September (see last update), has now been met.I'm afraid the outlook going forward is not positive. Just trading opportunities.
Bitcoin investors will only see losses between now and 2030 as the overall asset class spirals into to decline.
Huge tip, chase value not growth from here on. A topic that is discussed on my website.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.