BTCUSD
BTC since the last bottom of the bear run that saw prices down to $2900, we've witnessed several rallies continuing along a macro positive trend. In the days since 15th September last month we can see a trend of higher highs and higher lows with a converging upper/lower boundary.
There has also been a trend of decreasing volume throughout the past few weeks with a couple of upticks signalling interest followed by a downturn in volume. These factors coupled together collectively represent a rising wedge and this is known as a generally bearish trend that signals weakening bullish pressure as each rally point becomes smaller.
At the time of writing this, our latest rally hit a level of $4960+ to revisit a resistance zone witnessed at the end of the Month of August. A subsequent breakdown in price could see the price drop back toward $4200 levels before a clean break and strong show of support above the $5000 mark. A shorting opportunity may present itself in that situation.
That being said, there still seems to be significant strength in the market at the moment. On a macro level, the sentiment weighs more in favor of bullish exhaustion in play however the current market trend from a micro time-frame perspective is holding above the 50 MA which as many of you know and trade upon is representative of a trending bullish market.
RSI is currently also displaying some sideways action with upward trend signals gathered from the MACD.
Completion of bullish exhaustion will be evident in the MACD & RSI but the current sentiment displays some strength. In the event of a breakdown, we can rely on the fibonacci retracement level of 0.786.
It should be noted that even with my sentiment being that of an impending breakdown before a clean break past the $5000 level these predictions are on a macro scale so a show of support above that level for a few days will confirm the breakout. The immediate trend is showing good support and will remain bullish until proven otherwise. Remember, the trend is your friend.
If you are uncertain about opening a new position at the moment, whether long or short pay attention to and search for confirmation throughout a number of indicators before you make your decision.
In summary:
- BTC is finding good support in the long term especially after the recent price corrections couldn't be more positive.
- A possible breakdown would most likely not make it past the 0.786 retracement level of $4200 & a breakout above $5000 would require a good show of support before any more long positions should be considered. On the macro level, the market is pushing upward and a break out of the rising wedge will see quick correction before price rallies back up above $5000.
Investing and/or trading in digital assets like BTC is highly speculative and risks are involved due to a high market volatility difficulty level that doesn't favor new traders and new investors. The analysis expressed here is purely for informational purposes only and should not in any way be considered to be investment and/or trading advice.