Here I did an analysis on the previous time the all time high was breached and what happened. I think it will surprise many on the camp that "a 30% correction MUST occur now".
BTC actually broke the all time high and continued higher without anything remotely resembling a 30% correction. In fact the largest correction was only ~11% after breaching the all time high and then the dip was bought up immediately and prices continued to march higher.
The special occurrence with today's bitcoin price is that we've just had a halving event and we just printed a hash ribbons buy signal on all timeframes now.
I did a study and found that the average price increase after a blue circle was posted was 30-50% higher within 3-6 weeks on average.
I think a lot of bears are going to be surprised on price action over next 3 weeks.
Thanks everyone - please like the video, follow me, and leave a comment.
On point, dudes get too deep in TA and forget all about what's really going on. This will be an eventful next week/ month.
ich1baN
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@souljageorge, Thanks mate! I agree - sometimes taking a look back at what happened in history is the best remedy to avoid being wedded to an idea of "this must occur".
Thanks for this analysis! What are your thoughts on 19k recovery timeline?
ich1baN
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@charliemas1, Hey Charlie - I think the best estimate is that we could chop around here for next few days, we may go higher to 19k and then bounce back down to 18k range - it's looking like in the short term this is the most likely outcome as there are some strong handed buyers below 18k that are aggressively buying up any selloffs (new smart institutional money) and then there are some sellers above 19k (old dumb retail money from 2017 highs).
Since we've already cleared out quite a few of the "old dumb 2017 money", my view is the next attempt to break 20k should be the final attempt as there are very few sellers above 19k now. We should see this happen in the next few weeks. In meantime expect chop, until smart money moves through the last of the dumb money leftover from the 2017 peak.
charliemas1
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@ich1baN, Thanks for the reply, I will continue to follow your analysis!