Steady alts with a sideways Bitcoin', that is something we have not seen in a very long time. The past few months when we would see alts move up when Bitcoin' was making a move upwards, but as soon as the bullish move of Bitcoin' would slow down, we would see alts drop again. So each time when Bitcoin's rally would slow down and move sideways inside a bull flag, or even drop slowly like it has done the past 24 hours, we would see Alt coins drop slowly af first and eventually would see some more violence in the drops. Correct me if i am wrong, but i am not seeing that today. I gave a small warning earlier today when alts were making a sudden drop even though Bitcoin' only dropped like 20/30 points, because it reminded me of the drops we used to see the past few months with the alts. There has been a lot of uncertainty in the alts coin market the past 4/5 months.
Today, for the first time in months, alts buyers/bulls are showing some conviction again, like they are not scared anymore. This tells me there might be a shift going on from nervous buyers to more confident swing traders. The crypto market is an extremely emotional market because of all the inexperienced money, the high volatility and most importantly, the extreme FOMO virus that has been spread in this market. In one of my previous analysis (31/10) i talked about my switch from Big bear in 2018 to neutral/bullish. These were my reasons:
Back to business, i had switched sides a bit from big bear to neutral/bullish the past 3 months. For reasons i have mentioned several times in the analysis i posted the past few months. But the past month things have changed again and i am almost ready to throw my bullish towel in the ring. I had already switched to neutral the past month or so because the bearish factors just kept increasing, with the low volume being the nr 1 problem at the moment. I had a few reasons for being bullish the past few months and some were the following:
- The 6000 support zone was getting stronger and was slowly even moving up (higher lows) - Alts made a panic low 2/3 months ago with high volume showing allot of accumulation was going on - It became much harder to read the sentiment here on TV, but what i could see there were more bears than bulls the past months.
With the alt coins showing a shift from the nervous buyers to the more confident ones, it could be a hidden signal for more bullish movement. Don't get too excited because many alts are still below very big resistance levels and many have also have a long way to go to break the bearish trend of 2018. But a rally has to start somewhere and who knows, maybe the increase in confidence is the first baby step? That's why i really want to see a break of 6500ish (on USD exchanges), i still think that is THE (first) level to break for the bulls. Because i wan't to see how the alts will respond when we will see that happening. That could give us very important information for the mid/long term. Because if the alts will make big (with volume) jumps up the chances become a lot bigger that we might leave the 6K zone behind. The 6K levels have been a nightmare for everyone, back in April when most were bearish and since June until now. The manipulated moves have been extremely in the 6K zone, for the bulls AND the bears.
Short term view:
- On the right we can see a pattern that has been repeating and based on that we should see a move to at least 6600/6700, a break of 6500 is needed. - On the left we see a higher low on the daily, but it's still NOT confirmed. I want to see a break of the 6500ish, to have that confirmed. - The blue triangle shows a target of around 6850 - The 6380ish breaks and we test the 6300 again as well. If that breaks we could see a retest of the 6200. If that breaks it might be "game over" because i don't think that green horizontal support around 6100/6150 will hold the price again.
What i think that can happen in a bullish version, meaning we break the 6500:
- We don't see a volume increase when the 6500 breaks and the price starts to slow down around the 6600 and follow the pattern as we can see on the right - We see volume that is much higher than the monthly average, than we should see the bulls push it towards the triangle target around 6800/6850.
Medium term view: - We break the 6500 and see a good volume rally that brings the price to 6800. As we can see in the chart, the 6800/6850 has been a very important level MANY times. I think if the 6500 breaks with conviction, the 6800 will break as well. The second big step will be the break of 7400 to break the lower high pattern for the first time in 2018. - We see a break of 6400/6350 and we see alts making dumps again as well, in that case we have the 6100/6200 that could stop the bears. If that area breaks, i think we will finally see that break of the 6K level and get some volatility back again as well.
Bulls need to keep defending the 6350/6400 zone, if they can hold that support zone, we might see confidence grow. Me and my members are still long from the 6300 since almost a week ago and when you look at my alt coin analysis as well, you will know which direction I think we are headed. For more information about my thoughts of the market, read my previous analysis as well.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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Open longs broke the triangle, could mean we will see an increase, confirming the bullish version. Shorts are still dropping a lot, also confirming bullish version.
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I could see a small dump yesterday, the last one before this small move up happened. But when zooming in i could see the open longs increase AND the shorts decrease. Like they just keep waiting to get their orders filled at these "low" prices.
Anyway, it looks like we had a break out from these bull flags but also seeing a push down again as well. Glad to see it's not the Bart move that we used to see, i am not seeing the speed and violence of a Bart move. As i mentioned a week or so earlier, i think these Bart people are currently not in the market.
We want to see those green support holds, the 2 new ones so we see good follow through of this small break out. We need to see that 6500 break.
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This is starting to look like a Bart move now, thought it was part of history. Think i might have insulted them the lately and the past update?
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A lot of selling pressure on Bitmex going on with even market sell of 8 mil (don't know if it was a panic sell or a bear trying to push the price down. But there is/was a huge buy wall on Bitmex (quite sure it's a real) between 6400/6380.
Alts are also still quite stable, like they don't care that much any more
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if Bitcoin breaks the 6380/70 AND alts start to show dumping as well, that's the moment we need to start worrying
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Volume has been increasing, on Mex it has become double of what it used to be the past weeks. We can see the selling pressure coming in because of that, so you might think i don't like it. But we need this volume, if we really want to see a good rally, the bulls simply need to win the fight. What i have been saying for a while now, we need the high volume breakout. So it's good the bears are joining us now, because if the bulls can not win this, they would have never won this fight anyway.
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Bitcoin is dropping and getting selling pressure, but there are still bulls buying it up. Alts are even moving up while Bitcoin is dropping, this is has not happened in a very long time. I am not here to give guarantees, everyone has to do their own research, but i feel very confident of a move up. Looks like an inverse H&S, i never use these but that doesn't mean i ignore them. Think we can see a big move if we break that 6500ish. Bulls need to hold that low from a few hours ago!
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Looking good, volume is increasing. Everything is setup nicely now, the bulls can grap this opportunity to break those resistance levels. They need to keep the pressure high now, not even give away an inch. If the bears get breathing room again the first attempt might fail.
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Again it seems Tether is playing a role again. Was moving stable inside a range for quite some time, and all of a sudden we got a drop again with some volume as well. No big reaction though, as long as the Tether price stays inside the range. Thought we could keep this nonsense behind us :(
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Unfortunately the bulls gave away the momentum they had a few hours ago when they started to push higher with good volume. The bulls NEED to show more force because it seems the bears are still too comfortable with their positions.
Happy to see that Tether has stayed inside that range and went up again. On the right we can see a clear channel in which Bitcoin is moving now. We are reaching a turning point now, because it is becoming 50/50 now on which direction the market will go. Best case, the bulls keep bitcoin above the support line of this channel, but if it breaks those 2 green support zones could still give some support. Below those levels we have to assume we see a drop towards the 6300 again. That can seriously jeopardize everything.
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Come on Bitcoin bulls, lets do this :)
We are seeing another attempt now, they need to keep the pressure on, i don't know how many times these attempts can fail until bulls really give up.
From the looks of it, they might succeed this time
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This is strange, all of a sudden, Bitmex bears are getting in the market now? Maybe the first time in days that i see Bitmex being the bearish one. Nothing special so far, but we have seen in the past what these people can do.
The switch happened exactly at the resistance level. I have a special chart to show this, but unfortunately i can't show it here
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Some huge buy orders on Finex bought away a 1000 btc sell wall (dont know if it was wash trading or not). Looks like we are about to break up. WOUld be great if it would happen now, just before the daily candle closes. A close at 6600ish would be a very huge buy signal for the coming days,
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We saw some real fighting going on, but so far the breakout has been good but nog great! Best case we stay above the 6500 (USD) and with a max correction to 6440/6450. As i mentioned in my analysis, i want to see more conviction from the Bitcoin bulls. Don't want this to become a lame,slow and failed attempt. Need to see some real strength.
That channel is still giving resistance, holding back the squeeze that looked like was about to happen. Today we see once again, as if this market has matured, no more huge spikes up an down. More natural movement, but in slow motion.
Good luck everyone, calling it a day now :)
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So nothing has happened in the mean time. The current "slow" breakout confirms that the market conditions have really changed. Anyway, so far it is making a standard bull flag here. There is a bit more room for it but not much to remain a good bull flag. Price is also still perfectly above that previous resistance zone. So things are still in favor of the bulls. I do not want to see this bull flag become like the previous 2, i want to see an upwards breakout today.
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Still nothing big, but open longs are increasing now. Open shorts have stopped decreasing, at a good level now. The rally yesterday was 100% bulls buying, there were no shorts covering. So good sign from this part as well
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Volume on Mex has increased to 1.3B, almost 4 times what it was a week ago. Good sign!
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Tether is making a big move up now it seems, with high volume. This is pushing prices on Tether exchanges down, like Binance and Bitfinex. USD exchanges are not really moving. But the drops on Tether have been causing drops on USD exchanges as well throughout the day. Makes it difficult to judge what is really going on.
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Still looking good and stable. We had a drop on finex, because of the Tether movement. But it's back inside the range again. Alts have been dropping a bit, but no panic selling yet. They just want to see Bitcoin move above the 6600, the market wants to see a real rally. The 6500ish is a clear support, anything above it fits the bull flag.
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Alts are dropping slowly now which is showing some hesitation in the market now. The 6500 is still holding, but no bounce this time. So the bulls need to step up, otherwise the bull flag of BTC will fail and we will drop some more
If this channel breaks, we should expect a retest of 6400/6370
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The channel is still holding, but it's not looking that great though. No bounce up (yet) like we had 2 days ago and we can see the volume picture is different as well. Alts are also in worse shape as earlier this week. So things are not looking that great at the moment.
But before we become big bears, this correction is normal and nothing big yet. So for the mid-term things could still be bullish, but short term (1/2 days) we could drop some more. Unless this channel holds and we see a decent bounce up happening.
I will try to make a new analysis later today.
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Chances for a move up are increasing again, this small bounce up is a start, volume has to increase a bit more as well. Now it can make a lower high here or simply just break that resistance.
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Bull are trying, volume is increasing, but we need more. Need a good volume break of this 6500ish level again.
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The channel is breaking
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The 6370/6400 should give support, if that breaks we could drop to the 6300ish again
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Busy making the new btc analysis, might finish it tomorrow.
Here is the chart, a few levels to watch now. 6500ish for the bulls and 6300ish for the bears. If 6300 breaks, will probably mean big troubles, 6200 break should mean game over.
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We need to see a push up quickly, towards the 6380/6400 at least soon, to show there are some bulls in the building. Because alts are bleeding now as well, what could have been turned into a bullish wedge are starting look more like H&S pattern which can make the prices drop even more. So we need signs of life! Want to see movement like the blue line coming days, it's weekend so i don't expect a lot of big moves for now.
These moves are so small these days. Barely worth trading unless you're willing to hold for a longer period. My guess is a lot more sideways for the rest of the month. Especially with shorts lower than it's been for months, there's even less chance of a big move up with a short squeeze. Whales will probably look to hunt stop losses for liquidity and their eyes will be on the increasing longs now.
sukovsky
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@BTC_SA, I know it’s hard to imagine after being so long in a bear market that only had pumps because of short squeezes. But you know price can also rise by real buy volume.
BTC_SA
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@sukovsky, Yeah it can happen. Though the chances are less as it's much easier and safer to pump the price using someone else's money through a squeeze instead of using your own.
kardia
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@BTC_SA, I agree. More and more people are catching on to the manipulative moves of greedy day traders and pump and dump schemes. That's one of the main reasons why the market is slowing down. People are fed up!
BitcoinNewb
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@rev214us, people need to not worry about what anyone else is doing. Just put the money in there and forget about it! I'd be making a fortune trading if it weren't for these bastards who watch the price all the time and worry about every nickel and dime they are losing. That's what I'm fed up with!
kardia
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@BitcoinNewb, We likely likely have to wait about 5 or more years before seeing significant gains. It's probably best for holders to just walk away from the market and come back every 3 to 6 months to see what's new. This has become a depressing space for bulls. As for bears, more and more of them will get crushed as they continue to get stopped out. They will learn the hard way that day trading pay little to nothing in the end.
AlanSantana
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I've been mentioning that the Altcoins hit bottom for the past two months... Good call on this one.
botje11
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@alanmasters, Thank you, i have not said it with the bullish conviction you have because i have different followers (i think :) ), but talked about the possible panic V shape low for the same period now. The V shape i expected for Bitcoin months ago but never happened. But instead it DID happen with the Altcoins and eventually Bitcoin has been able to hold that 6K zone. We are still not there yet though, Really need to see Bitcoin break the 7000/7400, otherwise this could just be another failed rally as we have seen numerous times in 2018
AlanSantana
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@botje11, Thanks for the detailed reply. I agree with your analysis.