Notice how we are at the bottom of the oversold zone for the stochastic. I see a possible bounce, and correction coming. Here are my 2 scenarios, as per the All-Powerful Magical Fib Circles that have served us thus far with amazing insight on future movements.
1) I think a strong candle is highly possible, considering past action (even though past events don't guarantee future movements). The stochastic on the 4-hour is at rock-bottom, so it is highly likely in my opinion. That's not a hard thing to consider at this point. In this scenario, I would pay close attention to the top of the yellow parallel trading zone. We've seen significant resistance to the top of the channel enough times that this wouldn't be surprising. There is a possibility of rejection at the top of the channel. Being that we are still in the midst of an overall downward trend, we could see a pivot at that point and movement back down towards the Big Red 3.618 and a continuance of the downward trend. As we approach the end of October, trading could definitely keep moving down until we have a strong enough event that breaks the trend.
2) If BTC breaks the top of the yellow parallel trading zone, this scenario could play out as we have seen from September 2nd to September 19th that ended with the massive dump. My attention will be on what happens at the top line of the purple trading channel that I have extended for this purpose. If we reach the top of the purple zone, there is a high possibility of another rejection which would move us down to the Big Red 3.618 that has had lots of action in the past. While I see no evidence this early in the trend of breaking this barrier, I think it will take another significant technical indicator to power the price line above that point. The downward trend has to be significantly broken to prove to me that the bearish trend is over.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, so my safe bet is to assume that it will continue to influence the action. It's all I have to go by until proven otherwise. Let's keep a close watch on the parallel trading zones, and watch as it plays out!
Not financial advice. Entertainment purposes only.
Carlton Flowers The Crypto Pro
Comment
⋅
GANG, we are SOLIDLY following Scenario 1 almost to a tee. The only thing that we did NOT see was topping out at the roof of the parallel trading channel before the downward movement. We are headed straight to the Big Red 3.618, where I would expect a bounce, or a rapid drop. I will be releasing a new Idea within the next few days once I analyze the indicators!
Looking back at this idea, I'm pretty surprised at how closely we followed scenario 1. But I'm also surprised that we did not make it up to the top of the parallel trading channel before the dive took place. It's interesting that all of the fat-mouth blabber boxes on YouTube were screaming "PUMP!", expecting a run to $9600. It's so dangerous listening to the YouTube Jockeys and not sticking with your instincts. What we commonly see with the YouTube prognosticators is flip-flopping on a DAILY basis. It's not that they are wrong, but they will predict a massive bullish or bearish movement or extended run, and then change their minds the minute a candle pops in the opposite direction. The problem that I have with them is that they focus on the micro. They can't look at the big picture and stick with an overall idea on a trend without immediately changing their minds when the price movement goes to the contrary. MM Crypto has a good channel, but is the primary person guilty of doing this. I like to watch Crypto Kirby, and seem to think he has a better practice of predicting movements due to the fact that he trades the market in whatever direction he thinks it is going. But this month, he also made a couple of bold predictions and then immediately flipped to the contrary a day later. It's confusing for everyone, but it just goes to show that you cannot be so bold in your predictions and keep your credibility when you constantly change your position on the direction the market is going. The safe way is to look at the overall, and try to keep it within reason. I'm careful about this myself. When I see things working out the opposite of what I thought, I will generally stick to my overall idea and then admit that I could be wrong. I definitely do NOT want to influence someone to make a trading decision based on my analysis and then lose money. I would rather report the action as I see it, and keep my eyes on the big picture. Not financial advice, my opinion only.