A rare piece of public analysis, and more a warning rather than anything else after seeing so many Bullish BTC idea's on here.
Lets face it, its exciting that BTC is on the verge of a potential breakout, Volume is low as can be, price is static within its Descending Triangle, something is going to happen this week. But its important that your Bias stays Mechnical and is not led by your emotions. We all want BTC to go long here, hell my portfolio could do with it, but lets not forget the markets we are playing here.
The Crypto markets are intensely manipulated, in my opinion it would be foolish to enter this market without the manipulation. The current formation is a descending Triangle indicating price should emerge bearish, and IF this market is going long from this point, we need mass accumulation at the previous Price Reversal Area's (Either 3000 or 5000) in the form of a long shadowed candle similar to that in the picture.
I could plaster Fibonacci, MA's, Pivot's, Accumulation Indicators and all sorts on the chart but there is not any point. The markets are manipulated, and if we think a bull run is coming without a high volume reversal then that would frankly be a shock. Either Whales, Hedge Funds or Institutions want price as low as possible and will be happy to collect all the BTC that is sold in panic / Stopped out as price goes through the obvious demand area. Its fairly standard price action at the end of a Flag formation / Break & Retest so this may not be be any different.
I wouldn't recommend buying now, or if price pushes through the downtrend line until at least the first retracement happens. I believe there is going to be a Bull Trap set-up. Certainly, I will be prepared with my investments on my selected Alt-Coins when the market does reach its bottom. I may even Short BTC as a slight hedge against my portfolio if the Bull-Trap presents.
Not the popular thesis, but the likely one. Trade wisely, invest wisely.
2/3 of the posts here are super bullish with targets of up to 50k EOY... We could get a nice breakout, everyone going long, already shopping for lambos, and then a big red manipulated dump reveals itself, causing panic selling that goes infinity gauntlet snap on the price. I am personally completely neutral at this point, and I'm waiting to see what really happens.
realSatoshiNakamoto
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first shorts need to get rekt before we go down...
W3rN0tAl0n3
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I couldn’t agree more my man, but in reading all of the analyses that are being posted and EVERYONE saying that THIS is the moment, its enough to make one question whether they are right so it’s refreshing to see someone holding to the same strategy I am- emotions can get the better of you in this “game” but I think it’s important to think about the big picture and consider all that you mention in your post, ;-)- Thanks for sharing bud.
PardoFX_Trading
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@jeremy.jacques79, for sure, its the sensible view. Im a common sense trader, and it's just common sense to hold this view. It certainly wouldnt hurt to put a couple of pending orders in at the previous demand levels just in case, if you think its going bullish here, even if you didn't believe it would spike down.
eduardokaykedasilva
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PardoFX_Trading
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@eduardokaykedasilva, while I would definitely agree that Trend-lines are powerful tool's, I don't consider Trend-lines broken until price has closed. A wick can merrily push through before rejecting back up. Your MACD looks nice.