Bitcoin (BTCUSD) typically starts the (final and most aggressive) Parabolic Rally sequence of the Bull Cycle straight after each Halving event. The next one (Halving 4) is expected in April 2024. Not too far away but the Vortex Indicator (VI) and Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) on the 2M time-frame show, we may be on the verge of starting it before the Halving.
As you can see, the BBW historically bottoms after the Halving and may have as a Support a (dotted) Lower Lows trend-line. It is on course to bottom there in March 2024. But it is the VI, which may only be max 2 months away from making a Bullish Cross, which is a formation it has historically done right before BTC starts a long-term sequence of straight green candles (Parabolic Rally) straight to the Bull Cycle's peak.
As a result, we may see this cross taking place on the next 2M candle (Jan 2024). What do you think? Can it be that we are that closer to the start or a "green only candle rally" than we think? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Historical Patterns: The chart assumes that historical patterns will repeat. While past performance can inform future predictions, it is not a guarantee. Each market cycle can be influenced by different variables.
Market Dynamics: The chart does not account for external market dynamics and macroeconomic factors that can significantly influence Bitcoin's price, such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, and shifts in investor sentiment.
Indicator Reliability: While the Vortex Indicator and BBW can provide signals, their reliability in predicting future market behavior is not absolute, especially in the context of the broader financial market and economic conditions.
Sample Size: There have only been four halving events in Bitcoin's history. A sample size of four is quite small to draw definitive conclusions about future market behavior.
Self-fulfilling Prophecy: If enough market participants believe in the halving event's influence on Bitcoin’s price and act on it, it can create a self-fulfilling prophecy that drives the price up, regardless of the underlying fundamentals.
In summary, while the chart suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin following historical patterns of post-halving rallies, critical analysis reminds us to consider the limitations of technical indicators and the influence of a multitude of other factors on market prices. It’s important for investors to conduct a comprehensive analysis that includes both technical and fundamental perspectives before making investment decisions.
rakib320000
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@flipperkoala101, Historical patterns and market dynamic and Halving, all are favor of this outlook. You are just here to find faults...