After the Feb 6 capitulation briefly broke through the bottom of the bear channel, BTC has been figuring out what to do next. Too many people took the strong bounce back from $6000 up to $11700 as evidence that we were in a bull market again, but the bounce back from the top of the bear channel sent a clear signal to me that we weren't out of it yet. However, after a brief consolidation, we finally broke free from the bear channel around the first of march, and I was finally coming around to the idea that we might actually be going up...I just didn't expect it to be straight up. There was still too much uncertainty in the market for it to just take off and continue on its way to $20k and above, so I waited to see if we could get a higher high from the $117500 recovery in late February.
Sure enough, it didn't happen. It fell short, peaking at just under $11,700, then rapidly crashing back down to where the $10,000 support line met the top of the bear channel, which gave BTC a day to think about what it wanted to do, before deciding to crash further, breaking through the $9000 support before bouncing off the $8300 support, twice, for good measure. Looking like the $8300 support was staying strong, it tested the top of the bear channel again, hit that resistance and fell back down towards the $8300 level again, but stopped higher than the last double bounce, setting up a clear line of ascending resistance. The bottom of the new bull channel.
Having established the new bottom, it smashed back up through the $9000 resistence and the top of the bear channel, rebounded from the $10k resistance back down through the bear and $9k again to just above the Bull channel resistance once more, before rebounding back up through $9k and bear channel, clearly showing us that the bear channel is no longer relevant at all.
From here I do not expect us to go below the bull support line. Of course I am not certain about this, and can't help but constantly worry that someone will want to push the market back down to the $6,000 bottom again, just to make sure, but I am inclined to think that this new Bull channel bottom line is quickly becoming very well established as the real bottom. There is just too much good news now, too much interest in crypto and BTC, and most of all of the FUD has already run its course (for a little while at least). MtGox can't dump any more coins until September at least, and will probably never dump them on the markets again anyway.
I don't think we're going straight to the moon, but I do think we will keep bouncing between these lines of resistance testing higher highs and higher lows for at least a few weeks to come before some major break out takes us to higher ground and then the next "crash" brings us back down to levels well above $10k.
So I guess I am bullish in the short term, the medium term and the long term from here.
Though, if we break the bullish line, then I will need to reconsider ;)
Sure enough, it didn't happen. It fell short, peaking at just under $11,700, then rapidly crashing back down to where the $10,000 support line met the top of the bear channel, which gave BTC a day to think about what it wanted to do, before deciding to crash further, breaking through the $9000 support before bouncing off the $8300 support, twice, for good measure. Looking like the $8300 support was staying strong, it tested the top of the bear channel again, hit that resistance and fell back down towards the $8300 level again, but stopped higher than the last double bounce, setting up a clear line of ascending resistance. The bottom of the new bull channel.
Having established the new bottom, it smashed back up through the $9000 resistence and the top of the bear channel, rebounded from the $10k resistance back down through the bear and $9k again to just above the Bull channel resistance once more, before rebounding back up through $9k and bear channel, clearly showing us that the bear channel is no longer relevant at all.
From here I do not expect us to go below the bull support line. Of course I am not certain about this, and can't help but constantly worry that someone will want to push the market back down to the $6,000 bottom again, just to make sure, but I am inclined to think that this new Bull channel bottom line is quickly becoming very well established as the real bottom. There is just too much good news now, too much interest in crypto and BTC, and most of all of the FUD has already run its course (for a little while at least). MtGox can't dump any more coins until September at least, and will probably never dump them on the markets again anyway.
I don't think we're going straight to the moon, but I do think we will keep bouncing between these lines of resistance testing higher highs and higher lows for at least a few weeks to come before some major break out takes us to higher ground and then the next "crash" brings us back down to levels well above $10k.
So I guess I am bullish in the short term, the medium term and the long term from here.
Though, if we break the bullish line, then I will need to reconsider ;)
3 out of 3 ain't bad!