A simple BTC analysis of past 6-7 months and short/long term view ahead without complex theories.
From ATH, three giant pattern structures have been shaped in past six months as fractals, the last one is in process. They seem are shaped to correct the parabolic price movement of late 2017.
*Short term: -Their lows not violating the trend line from higher lows line starting Nov.18 2017 -The structures are getting smoother and smoother -highs and lows approaching around MA daily 365 acting as a very long term trend line.
Conclusion: For price action in current in-progress structure, 6800 (or even a bit higher) should be a reversal level, considering uptrend line and previous fractals.
*Longer term: Overall these structures shape a symmetric triangle due to size and length of time they formed (in course of 6-7 month) I think this symmetric triangle has value to be judged: 1-For a bullish biased view, and considering bitcoin trend from the beginning, this triangle can be considered a continuation of uptrend from previous years. 2-But if price action violate 6800 at uptrend line and continue to cross the continuation of downtrend lower highs line around 6300 then overall trend reversal to downtrend for a symmetrical triangle can be considered, that is a continuation fail, this is a bear view.
Conclusion: As I checked, general reliability of symmetric triangles in forex and other markets in publications for daily time frame, roughly %55 is in favor of continuation, here bullish view (1); and %45 in favor of reversal, here bearish view (2)
*My view: My compilation from above and perception of market sentiment is we are far from violent price action moves to upside or especially down side, with a bit in favor of bullishness for few months ahead. This means to me: still time needed for the market to digest the parabolic move of late 2017, while still holding overall uptrend momentum. Yours could be different. -- Please share your opinions regarding this idea, and “Like” it if you think the analysis deserve it, regardless of “my view”.
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It seems a minor or major reversal is ahead soon, here are the evidences:
-We are around apex point of giant symmetric triangle, per Bulkowski in %60-75 of cases a minor or major turning occurs around apex point: thepatternsite.com/Apex.html.
-Further to this, a bullish divergence is formed in RSI in 4H chart:
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Ok, bounce took place with a remarkable range of around 500 points up from ~7000 to 7500, it seems btc momentum still in place.
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If refer to previous fractal and take that as model, there are a few times of up and down in range of 100 or a few 100 points ahead in coming week and before a major upside move.
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It seems an inverse H&S is took place that has a target aimed at 8000 k
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if inv. h&s fails, the downward target would be around 7150
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I think btc will retest the bellow support again
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my estimate is downward target of (for now) failed inv H&S is around 7230; the inv. h&s still have a chance to be complete as it is common to have multiple right shoulders.
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in process of retesting below support which is in progress I am still thinking of reversal around 7230 (range will be 7150 to 7300 with a tendency to lower limit)
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yesterday btc retraced to 7370 at minimum and bounced to 7600, but still there is a great possibility of retesting lower support around 6900 to 7150 before bouncing up; it will not happen if price closes above 7800. In both scenario still the target is around 8000 k.
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-Ok double top is in play and it seems 6900 area retest is the scenario in progress if the area be able to hold this area is target of double top and higher lows uptrend of past 7 months same time, I think it will be able to hold and a rebound occurs, if not the lower support areas are 6400 and 6000. -the 6900 area rebound if occurs it could be even at higher points between 7300 the current support area of price action and 6900. But I think it will go much lower than 7300. -in this possible rebound with reference to fractals if it be able to close above MA 20 Daily (around 7600 at that time) and 7700 to shape a complete double bottom with recent major low as marked in below chart it could reach to 8500 area target depending on local resistances, as first step to pass 10k mark if momentum continues. -but if 6900 area not to be able to hold then the 7 months higher lows will be broken and the huge triangle in above chart would break down side, this if continues to 6000 k area then it will be a confirmation of steep down trend, and hope for a soon bull market fades.
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as expected btc went down and now consolidating around 6800, below lower boundary of expected area, remember that it is possible to spike down to 6k and still it can be assumed a correction and a reversal next, that is the thing I believe.
But if 6k area in general not to hold which is less likely in my view, then next stop is in range of 4xxx k to find a support.
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OK we are at moment of truth now June 14, I prefer to continue my TA using the chart I posted on May 28 concerning the giant symmetric triangle formed in past 7 months from ATH, -if you refer to main chart on top of this post you can see 6900 area of past 7 months triangle uptrend line is breached a few days ago. -Now take the red box on chart (representing the area on which price action cross down the triangle downtrend line around 6000) while price action had already broke upward on Apri 20, and some analysts took that as a sign of end of bear market after ATH; btc may go below that trend line.
Above collectively tell us if we cross down around 6k the triangle breakout to upward can be assumed as failed completely and bear market continues, but if it can hold this last trench and bounce back there is still a possibility of continuation of triangle breakout to upward as started on Apri.20.
At this time there are some signs that the bottom is forming and an upward move in form of drop-base-rally.
I myself think the area can hold and bounce occurs. Have to stay tuned to see what is the market decision soon !