I'm on a business trip and haven't had time to analyze so I haven't posted for a few days. But I used to check the chart for a while. Looking at it for a moment, I saw a drop in the price of BTC a few days ago and felt that it was more likely that the price of BTC would drop to $ 4000. As you can see in the chart above, the next support line for the BTC's decline is around $ 6500. If the rebound occurred this time, I would try to infer the bottom of the decline through the size of the rebound. But looking straight down without a proper rebound, I thought the BTC price would fall to $ 6500.
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(BTC one week chart close up)
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As I mentioned earlier, I think this price will go up to $ 6500. Now I'm wondering if the BTC's decline will fall right away without a rebound and whether it will drop to just $ 6500.
<First scenario> If you look at the chart above, the flow of the drop still looks like a falling wedge. If price flows remain this way, I expect a rebound around $ 7300. Another reason I think this is because the 50 day line is under the current candle. The green line in the chart is a 50 day line. If the BTC flow rebounds above the 50-day line, the rebound is expected to rise at least below the 10-day line. The price is around $ 8000.
Of course, there is a possibility that the rebound may be just below the 20day line. However, as I believe the BTC has just fallen, I do not expect the price to rebound until the 20-day line.
<Second scenario> If the price flow doesn't draw a falling wedge and the BTC falls without a rebound, I expect the BTC to drop to just $ 6500.
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(BTC 2-week chart)
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The above chart is a 2 week BTC chart. Only looking at the MA in the chart, the intersection of the 20 & 50 day lines has been created. If the current candle finishes below the intersection of the 20 & 50 day lines, it is likely to go directly to $ 6500. I expect the two-week candle to finish below the intersection of the 20 & 50day lines.
This is because the two-week MACD has just created a dead cross. Now BTC is sure to fall. For now, I expect $ 6500 to be the bottom of the drop, and I think the worst would be $ 4000.
Today's analysis is up to here. Some of you made my profits and told me that my analysis was helpful. My goal was not to interfere with your trading, but I've been very happy lately that you've made money. I sincerely hope all of you continue to make money. I hope you'll be at peace for the rest of the day. Thank you.
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(BTCUSD 3-week chart)
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The marks on the left and right sides look quite similar.
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I don't think it's a good place to climb. I may be wrong, but I think it's a rebound. I considered the possibility of a rebound to the 20 day line, but I thought it was unlikely. And I didn't expect the price to go up at once like this. The price has been quite far from the 5-day line. So I was frustrated with why I didn't rebound. Now that the price has gone up to the 20 day line, I think the btc will go down again. And the rise doesn't go up like this. The sudden shift in prices is just a rebound. I think the rebound was just a little strong.