I have closed my position as the probabilities of my success have changed and I don't wish to risk the money I did anymore. So, I have closed the position for a negligible gain from short 32200 and closing at 31900.
I will probably look to trade a breakout one way or the other. I thought that would be yesterday, but that is not the case. Since we are already so near what is the floor, the EV of entering at a breakout with a lower price entry is better than the less likelihood of being short here at a higher price.
My only problem is that I am always right and it's rustling my jimmies that btc hasn't shit tanked yet. I'll wait and see.
Thanks for reading,
Shkreli
PS I am definitely not bullish here. The larger trends are bullish, the medium trends are bearish. I try to trade big only when they all align. Although, I should have been able to make money shorting at 38k because there was a very high probability of significant correction (indeed the longer we stay here the likelier 40k was the top). I did make money, but I didn't get to keep so much of it unfortunately, but nonetheless, I am up after having only made short bets this year on btc. Also, let it be known that I will not be shorting btc in a bear market but alts instead - I am still figuring out the correct way to go about this.
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everyone knows that third time charm is nonsense. It's the 4TH TIME where the luck kicks in. Few know this, so don't go yapping your mouths telling everyone.
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Evidently, it is clear the evaluation that the probability of my being correct had decreased was correct. Still not particularly bullish. Takeaway is that sometimes the market is not in the mood and you need to back off. I back off. The market is a beautiful lady that I respect.
Shkrel*, you did the right thing. Accepting the reality is always positive. Respect!
CantorTechnologies
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@xBTala, First step to making money is to not blow up.
pablo36
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Market if bearish doesn't want to give easy entries.
If there's a 4th charm I can't help to think it should be in these remaining 72h, to close the monthly.
CantorTechnologies
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@pablo36, Yeah, it doesn't look swell does it. Definitely not bullish here.
BTCPortugal
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Trading is not for you.
CantorTechnologies
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@BTCPortugal, Post your trades and let's compare. Find me someone else who has the balls to share exactly their trades. They won't because they don't make money. I don't believe you make any money at all unless you share your trades or your account information.
CantorTechnologies
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@youngshkreli, DM me and we can even get competitive :) That's how confident I am, that I am better than you. Put your money where your mouth is. Trade against me for a full year for $1000 prize. I'm ready. No skin in the game => total pussy. Post trades or gtfo.
Oselu
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@youngshkreli, You are too confident to the point it's sounds arrogant. I hope I can get my trading skills to your level. Respect.✌
CantorTechnologies
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@Oselu44, Just learn enough programming to be able to backtest strategies en masse. Once you have a strategy, figure out how to determine size of bets. Your size is dependent on the expected value of the trade. You determine the expected value by collecting a lot of data. Just takes time.
Oselu
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@youngshkreli, Thanks for the advice. All the best.👍