Everyone is looking up so it's time to look the other way. Yes, we definitely have room for one more move up But...
1) the why : We have a double top on stoch --> hidden bearish div RSI is overbought on the daily, printing a lower low on H4 and H2 -->bearish div MAcd is doing the same, we have a spike that confirm the count of wave iii on H4, while the daily is still going up, indicate this is a larger wave 3
2)the where : I drew a red line on macd from previous high, it shouldn't go above that, it's a sell signal when price action reaches it The top could be located anywhere in the red box, fib 2.618 is the natural target, but wave 3 look like it's extended so it could go higher I recommend a take-profit with a trailling stop, since the last move will probably a big green candle it's the safest bet to sell near the top, and little chances to be "stop-hunt" there. For a short entry wait for a break of the channel, with a close below on either h4 or h2
3)the when : The up-coming daily candle should be bearish, hanging man and bearish engulf are most common on top of wave 3, look for those
4)the what The second channel is our base and should offer support during wave 4 The blue support line is from the top of wave 1, it shouldn't be overlapped
Wave 2, was sharp, and retraced to fib 0.764, so wave 4 will be sideway and wouldn't retrace more than fib 0.618 or 0.5
RSI will show an entry when it starts to stagnate near the median, in the blue box Stoch should print a lower low And Macd to stay positive Those will be confirmation for re-entry
Happy trading ! Feel free to ask any question :)
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i am looking at the m15 chart we have a double top it reached target at 0.618 and then formed a HnS, just broke the neckline with descent volume and CMF seem to confirm If this one plays out and reached the target in blue, the daily candle would definitely be a bearish one Indicators on H4 have started to reset and confirmed the divergence
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yet i wouldn't recommend to actively short at the moment, take-profit yes, look for re-entry also yes, but i wouldn't short.
We haven't seen a shakeout in a few days, this could be just that.
This last move was the first that price has risen without a squeeze. And bear converted bull are waiting for a correction. Let's remember, we had month(S) of downward movement without ever reaching above fib 0.618 to upside. Most of the BTC bull-run i've experienced are propelled by seller waiting for a re-entry that never comes. And by buyers selling their stagnating altcoin when they should be adding to them.
So if you believe in this bull-run be careful the trade you make now are the one that will matter the most later.
Trade closed manually
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first blue target reached box formation between 8200 and 8300 I don't think it will break down,
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new strategy : gonna enter on either side in between triangle trendline and redline, to avoid stophunt i favor the upside, but both are valid option respective target in black at 8760 and 7780 good luck !
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two possible count from here :
1)the red count with a larger wave 4, we should bounce of the blue line and aim for the red support. Or we can see a triangle. But so far it look like a zig zag, so probably no triangle 2)the blue count, wave 3 isn't done yet, we break above the blue line, we'll have an ugly wave iii (2.618 of wave i) and one higher high in store
What about RSI? ( Overbought ) in daily time frame
lady_luck
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@imanmag, i know, you are right.
But price is in a tight formation. best option here is to have some trigger order a few pips above and below, or wait a few hours to enter. Seems to risky to take a bet on either side for me now.
lady_luck
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@imanmag, i think i got spook out of my short by that
just gonna wait it out