The last two days have been pretty volatile for bitcoin as sudden impulsive moves up and down has liquidated a lot of short and long positions. My initial bias for the last two days was bearish but with these recent moves I am somewhat neutral and have decided to do a top down analysis from the monthly, weekly chart down to h4.
The MONTH OF MAY IN REVIEW: Prices traded within $8100 and $10,000, providing about a $2000 range for lower time frame traders to exploit. With the fundamentals of the bitcoin halving and it's historic implications on price, i anticipate that in the course of June, Price should break the $10,500 key resistance level.
WEEKLY CHART: Price has been super bullish for the last eleven weeks with very little or no sign of weakness. EXCEPT this week closes with a strong bearish engulfing bar, there is no reason for medium/long term traders to be selling at this levels.
DAILY CHART: Price has remained bullish on the daily with pull backs now and then but the overall uptrend and market structure has remained intact. For the last six days, the daily bars have closed above the $9400 level (Bitfinex) forming a cluster of higher high and higher low bars and further confirming the bullish ascending triangle that price is in.
FOUR HOURLY CHART: Even with the sudden up and down impulsive moves of the last two days, the uptrend is still intact as price is back into the consolidation range of $9350 and $9620. In times of choppiness like this, I usually like to use the 50MA (the white line) to help smoothen the price story and currently, price is holding above the 50MA and seems to be setting up for a buy. But I wont be buying within an obvious resistance zone as the risk: reward ratio isn't worth my stress. I will only be more confident to buy when prices break and trade above the $10,500 level.
However, If I do succumb the FOMO and decide to trade, I will buy above the consolidation zone at $9650, place my stop loss at $9200 and aim to take profit at $10,350 which is a fair 1:1.5 risk:reward ratio.
Thanks for reading and always keep your risk managed.
The MONTH OF MAY IN REVIEW: Prices traded within $8100 and $10,000, providing about a $2000 range for lower time frame traders to exploit. With the fundamentals of the bitcoin halving and it's historic implications on price, i anticipate that in the course of June, Price should break the $10,500 key resistance level.
WEEKLY CHART: Price has been super bullish for the last eleven weeks with very little or no sign of weakness. EXCEPT this week closes with a strong bearish engulfing bar, there is no reason for medium/long term traders to be selling at this levels.
DAILY CHART: Price has remained bullish on the daily with pull backs now and then but the overall uptrend and market structure has remained intact. For the last six days, the daily bars have closed above the $9400 level (Bitfinex) forming a cluster of higher high and higher low bars and further confirming the bullish ascending triangle that price is in.
FOUR HOURLY CHART: Even with the sudden up and down impulsive moves of the last two days, the uptrend is still intact as price is back into the consolidation range of $9350 and $9620. In times of choppiness like this, I usually like to use the 50MA (the white line) to help smoothen the price story and currently, price is holding above the 50MA and seems to be setting up for a buy. But I wont be buying within an obvious resistance zone as the risk: reward ratio isn't worth my stress. I will only be more confident to buy when prices break and trade above the $10,500 level.
However, If I do succumb the FOMO and decide to trade, I will buy above the consolidation zone at $9650, place my stop loss at $9200 and aim to take profit at $10,350 which is a fair 1:1.5 risk:reward ratio.
Thanks for reading and always keep your risk managed.