It wouldn't matter but for the clear fact that when BTC drops it pulls 90% of the crypto market with it. It makes swing trading anything almost impossible.
Is BTC still ascending, or did it break down? I'm in two minds as to how to view this from a chart perspective, even at the most basic level of drawing channels. Mixed signals in many other respects.
If BTC is revisiting 55k, what would this mean for alt season?
And will 55k hold, or are we going to be retesting 50k, or even lower?
What I see at the broadest level is BTC running out of steam. I know on the macro that the picture is still bullish, and the upside targets are still in view. But BTC still has to get there.
Let me know your thoughts in comments.
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The thing that disturbs me the most is the dependence of alt coins on BTC. What can actually explain this, in plain reality not metaphor? Money is now flowing out of these coins. When BTC's price drops, their prices drop immediately. There and then. How is this? What is the practical relation that ties price action in one alt to BTC specifically? Is it related to market cap, in a way that when real market cap value drops, price drops? Is someone selling, or not? Suddenly too many sellers? What is actually going on? Stop losses getting triggered? Is this alone enough to explain the exact mechanism? Why do some coins drop 10%, 15%, when BTC drops 5%? It's tremendously problematic and unhealthy for the cryptospace as a whole.
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05 Apr 2021 17:06:05: The present break above 58.6 invalidates, I think, the way the channels were drawn on the chart above. I think this scenario would suggest that all BTC did was bounce off the midline of the channel it remains in. It's often hard to assess the strength of BTC. We see bearish divergence still on the weekly RSI. But what a monster this thing is. It ploughs on. Reminds to give precedence to higher timeframes.
You are right with the assertion that 55k will be revisited. Keep in mind the DESCENDING CHANNELS are actually bullish after the correction.
If you’re day trading this, watch for a low at 55k and maybe even a mid 54k visit before we go back up.
ianrdouglas
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@Zulu_Kilo, Thank you for the response. My problem is not so much trading BTC. It's trying to trade anything else amid constant uncertainty and mixed signals on that chart. Aside from being obliged to try to sequence trades with whatever happens on that chart, too often I'm exiting trades early, or not comfortable even opening them. Revisiting 55k certainly seems possible. But perhaps we're just touching the bottom of an ascending channel and 55k won't happen. I know nothing is certain anywhere, ever. It just seems a particularly uncertain moment for the entire market, forcing me down to lower timeframe plays.
Zulu_Kilo
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@ianrdouglas, I’m pretty certain of 55k. I use a Wyckoff model analysis, and it’s been pretty spot on for me.
Look at my precious idea on my profile. I’ve been modeling price with the Wyckoff for a while now.
ianrdouglas
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@Zulu_Kilo, On the daily there is a red doji printed 28 March, and I was eyeing that since that time as a zone (56.5 to 54.6) BTC may want to retest. But right now, I'm not even sure it would stop there.
@ianrdouglas, I'll try... But it is only a theory.
Lets an alt alt1
Alt1 has mainly 2 markets.
Alt1/usd trading at 1 usd
Alt1/btc trading at 1 usd
Btc goes up and now alt1/btc =1.1but alt1/usd=1usd
The bots detect this and start buying alt1/usd then
sell alt1/btc and then btc/usd making safe money. Because of the alt1/usd buys prices goes up until the bots cant make anymore money.
The opposite happens when btc goes down. At least thats what i think.
ianrdouglas
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@CarloMatos, Makes sense. Also explains why some lower cap alts don't react quite as strongly to BTC price action. They have bots attached to them, no doubt. But maybe fewer than the large cap alts. Alts without BTC pairs on major exchanges should be much more protected from swings in BTC price action.
Sephiroth4269
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I've been waiting for a bitcoin retrace all of March, now that I am ready to accept a smaller dip and move forward... it starts to retrace... the way I see it: I know nothing, and nothing is true until it happens
If you’re day trading this, watch for a low at 55k and maybe even a mid 54k visit before we go back up.