So my last post was incorrect: I was euphoric & forgot that bitcoin just grew 100% in 2 weeks --- let that sink in a bit.
I only looked at shorter time frames & thought the inverted H&S (purple on the chart) confirmed bull --- for that reason I only focused on the chart after the breakout.
If we look just a bit longer, we can see that a retest of the neckline is TOTALLY PREDICTABLE (I was stupid & didn't predict it). Moreover, we already surpassed the 1.618x of the neckline of the smaller H&S.
Now we are retesting the neckline, which also is the height of the left shoulder of a larger H&S --- the retracement will therefore likely be between .618 & .5, though 9.8k seems to be a whale stronghold.
After we break out of this new neckline (11.7k), we can expect a rally to 17.5k --- that will be glorious.
In this process, I don't really expect much performance from altcoins.
In sum, bitcoin is BULL. Just retracing (not even .618x ---> how bullish is that!)
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formed a rising wedge earlier & broke down
it seems there are groups of people trying to crash bitcoin. some speculate that it could be the banks (either because they want to buy or because they hate bitcoin --- take your pick). it could equally be groups of whales that want to buy.
to be honest the price movements these days aren't normal. always huge dives & jumps. very hard to trade.
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If we are to go up the same way we came down, there'll be a push to 12k soon.
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meant 11k
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another dry dump. small investors are scared & losing money with each dump while the price slowly goes up.
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Must say it's not the time for TAs.
The dump this morning was EXTREMELY synthetic: on bitfinex there was a drop of almost 1k in 1min suddenly from the top.
Obviously some groups are manipulating the market. During these times, it's not useful to do TA. TA really only works when manipulators have bought in & are riding the waves (no pun intended).
Best to stay out at this point if you're out & HODL if in.
I opened this LONG position yesterday (very stupid). During the night, I checked twice & it was going up steadily. Then, when I finally got up the crash already happened.
Investment is NOT a zero-sum game.
But some people have a zero-sum mindset (banks?). They love making money by robbing others.
If BTC goes down again to 6k etc etc, we are all dead. If we go that road again, BTC will touch 3k or even 2k and we enter another 3-5 years fucking bear fucking market. I'm out of USD all in in crypto. Fuck it. i wish BTC and LTC and ETH go all time high soon
DrJLT
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@GazMema, I ate with your assessment of the prognosis
YOUR LEFT SHOULDER LOOKS ALL BENT OUF OF SHAPE. MAYBE YOU SHOULD GO C A DR. :) JUST KIDDING. DIDNT KNOW YOU COULD CLASSIFY THAT AS A SHOULDER.
ShareTheVive
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would you think that is possible for a third larger h&s pattern, with left shoulder starting from ATH, and which include the other 2 h&s patterns within it?
DrJLT
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@ShareTheVive, I think perhaps it's the second one just the right shoulder moved rightwards
ZirSiri
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thanks for the update doc! but dont you think its possible btc is forming a broader right shoulder? or would you call that it broke the H&S trend?