BTCUSD has been in a bearish trend ever since March (notice the cloud shift point marked on the chart). However, given recent developments a major trend shift could potentially come in early October.
The following analysis is based on ichimoku theory with a (20, 60,120, 30) setup, such a setup fits the original definition of ichimoku variables, and I found this setup to be most accurate during my previous analysis of the crypto market.
If we consider the thickness of the cloud as the strength of support/resistance, it is clear that we had 2 major "thin cloud points" during this bearish trend:
1. Around June 19th the thickness was reduced to about 400 points, however by that time the candles were way down below the cloud with the base line and the conversion line acting as major resistance levels, thus it did not work;
2. Around Sep 5th the thickness was again reduced to about 400 points, by that time the lower side of the cloud acted as a major resistance, and the candles was unable to penetrate the cloud, thus we saw a huge down-fall after the failure of penetration efforts.
Now that with the early October cloud charted in sight, it caught my attention that the thickness of the cloud was reduced to an all-trend low of around 200 points, half of that on Sep 5th. It is probable that the candles would penetrate the cloud by that time, bringing in a major trend shift.
As we all know, the ichimoku theory contains not only the charted clouds and lines, but also the time-frame predictions based on ichimoku numbers. With my crypto setup in mind, below are my findings:
During this sub-trend starting from Aug 14th, we have already witnessed 2 key dates, Sep 2nd and Sep 21th. The former one was the date when BTCUSD made its all-trend high, tested the lower side of the cloud and started the down-fall, the latter one was when the upward sub-trend started.
Thus I have this wild assumption in mind that the next key date (Oct 11th) should also mean something in this trend, and immediately it is clear that October 11th is right when the cloud thickness get reduced to an all-trend thin!
So to conclude, my theory here is that we are going to see BTCUSD going bullish from now on to around at least $7000, and will try to penetrate by around Oct 11th, if succeeded, a major trend change will probably be accomplished and we shall all see another bullish trend.
Good luck BTCUSD, and happy trading :-)
The following analysis is based on ichimoku theory with a (20, 60,120, 30) setup, such a setup fits the original definition of ichimoku variables, and I found this setup to be most accurate during my previous analysis of the crypto market.
If we consider the thickness of the cloud as the strength of support/resistance, it is clear that we had 2 major "thin cloud points" during this bearish trend:
1. Around June 19th the thickness was reduced to about 400 points, however by that time the candles were way down below the cloud with the base line and the conversion line acting as major resistance levels, thus it did not work;
2. Around Sep 5th the thickness was again reduced to about 400 points, by that time the lower side of the cloud acted as a major resistance, and the candles was unable to penetrate the cloud, thus we saw a huge down-fall after the failure of penetration efforts.
Now that with the early October cloud charted in sight, it caught my attention that the thickness of the cloud was reduced to an all-trend low of around 200 points, half of that on Sep 5th. It is probable that the candles would penetrate the cloud by that time, bringing in a major trend shift.
As we all know, the ichimoku theory contains not only the charted clouds and lines, but also the time-frame predictions based on ichimoku numbers. With my crypto setup in mind, below are my findings:
During this sub-trend starting from Aug 14th, we have already witnessed 2 key dates, Sep 2nd and Sep 21th. The former one was the date when BTCUSD made its all-trend high, tested the lower side of the cloud and started the down-fall, the latter one was when the upward sub-trend started.
Thus I have this wild assumption in mind that the next key date (Oct 11th) should also mean something in this trend, and immediately it is clear that October 11th is right when the cloud thickness get reduced to an all-trend thin!
So to conclude, my theory here is that we are going to see BTCUSD going bullish from now on to around at least $7000, and will try to penetrate by around Oct 11th, if succeeded, a major trend change will probably be accomplished and we shall all see another bullish trend.
Good luck BTCUSD, and happy trading :-)
