BTC hit RSI 30 for the first time and what happened? Rebounded nicely off of it with a huge green weekly candle. We're following that up with another green candle. This is the beginning signs of a bottom. I have highlighted a BTC defense zone which we need to hold. If the unlikely event we do break below 3k, which I doubt based on what I see on the daily timeframe , you will notice the highlighted buy zone. It's a wide range, but that's what it is based on past support zones.
Capitulation already happened. Retail investors have given up. outdated miners are dead. Only people left are the strong! This was when BTC broke through the 6k bottom and fell to 3k. FUD and short sellers are calling for a lower BTC but this is no different from BTC bulls buying and mortgaging their homes to buy at 19k. Short sellers have gotten way too risky and confident leveraging up to 100x. Within the next month we're going to see a huge short squeeze and the market is just waiting or a catalyst...what could this catalyst be?
This catalyst is Baakt, which is expected to launch Jan 29th. physical delivered futures and more importantly institutional grade custody by sister company NYSE. I'm looking forward to these daily futures as a hedging instrument.
The market timing is actually amazing. Global growth and stock prices are headed down. Trade wars on the rise. Geo-political risks across all industrial economies seems unrelenting. Global investors will invest more capital into the crypto-market as a hedge. More money will pour obviously into Gold , but we will being in Q2 2019 institutions begin dipping their toes into the King of Digital Gold ( BTC ). So this V bottom recovery is highly plausible and sustainable to 6k levels again soon. From there we continue higher testing new levels of resistance.
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Why do I feel capitulation already happened? Miners have gone bust. Media have all said Bitcoin is dead. ICO's have had to sell ETH at an alarming rate to stave off further declines in their treasuries. Retail hands have been shaken out. 5 weeks of Doom and Gloom when we broke the 6k floor.
Then when BTC hit 30 on RSI what happened? The early makings of a V bottom recovery. Wait for the short squeeze. It's coming....
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I realized I made a mistake not making the moving averages visible on this chart. My bad. Anyway the 20 Day EMA is an important support. It's currently sitting around 3,780. BTC just broke through it, but as long as this daily candle or the next closes back above it I'm not concerned AT ALL. DO NOT PANIC and just SELL. This is what the trading bots want you to do! It's obvious now that the next 1-3 daily candles are going to be very important in determining if BTC already bottomed. My recommendation if you bought near the low is to chart the 15 day MA and keep your stop loss just below that. I would not sell 100%. What we want to do here is accumulate more and more bitcoin on the dips because we are in the bottoming phase of this market. The short squeeze is coming and it will be impossible to time exactly. So the idea is we keep averaging our holdings down and down on every dip and then BAM-->we confirm the bottom later and all of those sitting on the sidelines waiting for that $800 bitcoin will end up paying much higher than we did.
@TheCryptAlpha, I know I'm lacking all the squiggly piggly lines that most of you enjoy to make it look more "technical"....I have a strategy that has been working for me...sooooo I guess that's why charting can be as much as art as a science....
WorthAShot
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@TheCryptAlpha, Nothing wrong with the chart,really. It's clear, and communicates that point quite well. Looks good.
UnknownUnicorn1615160
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@WorthAShot, cheers mate. I'm always open to constructive criticism and other ideas. No one is a fortune teller but it's annoying when people make comments like that :)
Anyway Happy Holidays from Chicago.
WorthAShot
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@BitcoinBobby, I know what you mean. I used to write articles for Wealth Daily, and would get weird comments from readers. It comes with the territory, I guess. Good and bad together. It makes the good that much better. Keep up the great work. Every art and science is progressive. We never reach the end of growth. We just keep growing.
aminesoft
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Not sure about ur prediction but the V ref never happened at 2014 now the dip must be 800$ to 650$ my prediction for 2019 good luck
UnknownUnicorn1615160
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@aminesoft, past performance is not indicative of future results....
UnknownUnicorn1615160
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@BitcoinBobby, the market is waiting for a catalyst. IMO we are in accumulation phase and every dip will be bought up so the fall won't be as violent like in early to mid December going from 6k-3k. I'm no fortune teller so i could be wrong, so it's always wise to know where to put your stop loss. The goal with every trade with me is how quickly can I bring my stop loss first to break even and then bring it to profit zone without the market getting it too quickly. So I'm always trading for free and/or for a profit. 3,780 is 20 day EMA so it's an important first line of defense. 2nd line is the 3.5k. If this breaks than a retest might go to 3k but we'll see. I don't see btc breaking below 3k.
lemonsandshade
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@aminesoft, I think you are right on target...corrections always take longer than expected, which could drag the correction process out for another year. Either way it makes trading the bounces very fun/rewarding.
UnknownUnicorn1615160
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@lemonsandshade, That's exactly correct. This bear market has proven the best times to buy is severe oversold territories. We are definitely seeing the makings of a bottoming formation happening. Does this guarantee BTC will stay above 3k? No. But this is why we trade right? We trade probabilities and when the market goes our way we bring stops to breakeven...then if the market is really trending right we take some profits off the top. I would rather have positions in this market right now vs. sitting on the sidelines hoping for a $1100 BTC.
Happy Holidays and lets hope for a fantastic 2019!