NewMexCapital

Bearish view will switch to neutral at a daily close above 7000

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Why 7000?
If you look at the chart you will see that during the bull trend, after each impulse we had a correction which ended most of the times right at the 0.65 (measured from the beginning to the end of the impulse) retracement level and never under it.

The current bear market started when a new impulse failed to break the 0.65 retracement level of the correction for the last impulse. This was the first time it happened since the previous bear market started. After this we got rejected almost at every 0.65 from swing high to swing low and never above it.

The previous bear market ended when the first 0.65 from swing high to swing low was broken and as you can see on the chart it was quite the resistance. It had the first attempt on 17th Nov 2015 which failed miserably and after that the price created an ascending triangle with the resistance at 475 and on 27th May 2016 (6 MONTHS LATER!) it managed to break out of it and a massive bull trend started.

Why neutral and not bullish?
Well things are a little different now. In the previous bear market btc had 2 major swing highs so that means that it had to break only to major 0.65s. Now, if we bottomed at 5755 (we do not believe this but..you never now for sure until it happened) for a new uptrend to start BTC will have to break each 0.65 that sent us to 6k every time we touched it.
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Comments

WoW!
+2 Reply
Thnx! Nice analysis of levels.
+2 Reply
nice chart, thanks for sharing
+1 Reply
I appreciate your analysis brother, well done, here is my view.

BTC may head to 7k zone soon

+1 Reply
why actually 0.65 and not 0.618?
Reply