Hello everyone,
Looking at the H4 chart of Bitcoin, the market is showing a clear rebound from the recent low around 66,000 up to the 67,500–68,000 area. However, when we step back and assess the broader structure, this still appears to be a technical recovery, as price remains below both key EMA levels.
A key level to watch is the 68,500–69,000 zone, which is acting as immediate resistance and aligns with dynamic EMA resistance. In recent price action, each attempt to approach this area has been met with renewed selling pressure. This suggests that the market still lacks sufficient momentum to transition into a sustained bullish phase.
From a macro perspective, the crypto market continues to be heavily influenced by USD strength and monetary policy expectations. Recent data indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates for longer, as inflation has not fully cooled. This supports the US dollar and puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to a risk-off environment, where capital tends to rotate into safer assets, reducing short-term demand for crypto.
Looking ahead, this week’s economic calendar includes key events such as FOMC member speeches and the Nonfarm Payrolls report—both of which could trigger increased volatility in the short term.
For now, the structure still leans bearish unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 69,000 area. Otherwise, this rebound may simply remain a pullback within the broader downtrend.
What’s your view—can BTC break through resistance this time, or are sellers preparing for another move lower?
Looking at the H4 chart of Bitcoin, the market is showing a clear rebound from the recent low around 66,000 up to the 67,500–68,000 area. However, when we step back and assess the broader structure, this still appears to be a technical recovery, as price remains below both key EMA levels.
A key level to watch is the 68,500–69,000 zone, which is acting as immediate resistance and aligns with dynamic EMA resistance. In recent price action, each attempt to approach this area has been met with renewed selling pressure. This suggests that the market still lacks sufficient momentum to transition into a sustained bullish phase.
From a macro perspective, the crypto market continues to be heavily influenced by USD strength and monetary policy expectations. Recent data indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates for longer, as inflation has not fully cooled. This supports the US dollar and puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to a risk-off environment, where capital tends to rotate into safer assets, reducing short-term demand for crypto.
Looking ahead, this week’s economic calendar includes key events such as FOMC member speeches and the Nonfarm Payrolls report—both of which could trigger increased volatility in the short term.
For now, the structure still leans bearish unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the 69,000 area. Otherwise, this rebound may simply remain a pullback within the broader downtrend.
What’s your view—can BTC break through resistance this time, or are sellers preparing for another move lower?
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.