bwy
Long

BTC/USD Cautiously Back in Bull Market Territory

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I believe the bear market is finally over. Looking for a decent upside move with caution that $450 presents potential serious resistance.

MACD is back in bull territory above the 0 line, with momentum building up.

ADX is currently in strong trend territory.

RSI pushing up back above 50.

CCI moving back into positive territory as well.

The weekly chart is also looking much more bullish to add support to this potential daily chart move.

2014-12-09 Update: sadly I just got a sell signal today. Looks like this isn't going to play out :(
Like it BWY! good analysis
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What happened the last hours was yet another fake breakout and not the real deal. First we need one solid lower bottom price where everyone gets on the train before Bitcoin could go up long-term for weeks. Today looks more like a special Black Friday edition pump & pump where only daytraders profited.
+2 Reply
I disagree with your premise of a second low. Right now is a fantastic structure for a long bc there is confluence on both the daily and weekly timeframes suggesting up.

See Daily, Confirmed Reversal ("O" under price 4 days go)
snapshot


See Weekly, first confirmed reversal in 2 months

("O" under price two weeks back. The "X" means the reversal has a higher chance of failure so the idea is to move your stop up from the blue bar low to under the X bar to reduce the risk exposure of the trade. )
snapshot


---- The flip side to this very bullish setup is that *if* this long structure fails -- it will be the same thing in reverse -- an overlap of a daily failure and weekly failure. This would portend a powerful move lower and is a very bearish outcome.

Right now the bulls have the ball. Its rare that you get a price structure that really can break powerfully in either direction.
+1 Reply
ChartArt SPYderCrusher
The great thing about trading is that we can just compare our forecasts in 4-8 days and see who was "right" :)

With low I mean something like a possible double bottom at $358-$365 after this way too fast rally today has cleaned up.
+1 Reply
Gotcha! Thanks. My forecast is a little longer term than 4-8 days, but yeah we will see. The main line in the sand for the bull / bear scenario I described is 345/350. That is where the daily and weekly confirmed reversal up will fail.
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ChartArt SPYderCrusher
The 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire uptrend since the $275 low (using the $453 peak) is at around $364. Therefore I was not totally surprised to see so much action today.


"The flip side to this very bullish setup is that *if* this long structure fails -- it will be the same thing in reverse -- an overlap of a daily failure and weekly failure. This would portend a powerful move lower and is a very bearish outcome."

Yes, if the price sinks below $340 I also expect this to be a very bearish trend change which could bring us down to $300/$275 or lower. Following the cumulative average price my most bearish price idea would be at around $222
snapshot
But so far I'm overall much more bullish like you and at around $345 would also be the 61.8% retracement of the earlier mentioned multi-week trend, so there is hope that DanV's scenario doesn't come true :)
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